It's going to be close... I guess I'm a little less confident than prior, because the models shifted south. The main trough from yesterday lifted out, but a remnant upper level low is still sittin in northern Mexico/S. TX. It will be interesting to see if that stays there, as we saw a similar thing happen with Dennis. That would be enough to kick the storm into TX.
Steering currents currently would bring it right to the border, if not a bit north... but the high is expected to build west. It's all about the weakness on the western periphery, hopefully the next model runs will make things a tad more clear.
This is kind of neat... Super Typhoon (cat 5) heading for Taiwan.
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/wp0505sair.jpg
