Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
...and where did they find 135mph winds? I'm still in shock.
You posted it. :)
128 kt wind in the NE Quad... discussion covers it.
For the image, I did a print screen (above insert and delete).. then I pasted into photoshop, and cropped.
Emily has abruptly strengthened again...which we know thanks to frequent fixes from the United States Air Force reconnaissance mission tonight. Since about 18z this afternoon...the central pressure has fallen 15 mb to 954 mb. Very recent maximum 700 mb flight level winds from the aircraft were as high as 128 kt in the northeastern quadrant...up from 108 kt in that same quadrant just a couple of hours ago. The flight level data also indicate double wind maxima at about 8 and 50 nmi...suggesting concentric eyewalls...so a replacement cycle could occur within the next several hours. However...we are not able to forecast such structural changes...so I will keep the forecast intensity at 115 kt through the next 48 hours while Emily is over the increasingly warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea. The intensity could of course fluctuate quite a bit during this period...which is common in major hurricanes. Emily might weaken somewhat if it spends enough time over the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days.
The initial motion...smoothing through some wobbles during the past several hours...is estimated at 285/16. The official forecast takes Emily on much this same heading throughout the five-day period...with a gradual and slight Bend to the right...and a little increase in forward speed in the western Caribbean when Emily is expected to be directly south of the mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States. This track is similar to the previous advisory...although it is now on the north side of the model guidance suite which has this time shifted south. As we usually do when the models are shifting back and forth...I will only make a slight adjustment...a little southward...to the previous official forecast.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/0300z 15.1n 74.2w 115 kt 12hr VT 16/1200z 15.8n 76.6w 115 kt 24hr VT 17/0000z 17.0n 79.9w 115 kt 36hr VT 17/1200z 18.6n 83.2w 115 kt 48hr VT 18/0000z 20.1n 86.4w 115 kt 72hr VT 19/0000z 22.5n 92.0w 85 kt 96hr VT 20/0000z 24.5n 96.5w 95 kt 120hr VT 21/0000z 26.5n 101.0w 50 kt...inland
Emily might weaken somewhat if it spends enough time over the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days.
Corpus weather is saying 75 miles south of Brownsville, BUT things can change.(Their emphasis, not mine.)
The next 36 hours are critical for the ultimate landfall.
FReepmail
It will still be a general location by then. Our last one, Claudette, was going north of us when we went to bed. Two years ago, to the day, I awoke to hammers before daylight. She had turned and was about to come in at Port O'Conner.
Sounds a bit conservative, surprised they wouldn't play it up... local stations love to do that. ;-)
By 36 hours, will have a very good idea of location in relation to the Yucatan Peninsula.
I know what you meant. ;)
As mentioned last night, Emily did indeed have an eyewall replacement cycle ahead of her. The drop-off in intensity, from 135mph/952mb to 105mph/970mb, was more than expected. Of course, leave it to this storm to return with a vengeance. After the eyewall replacement cycle completed earlier this afternoon, the pressure rapidly fell, now sitting at 956mb as of 10pm tonight. With only weak to moderate shear over the storm, a strong jet to its north to "exhaust" the storm, and very high heat content and SSTs undernear the system, further intensification is likely and the storm may make a run at category 4 status once again.
Update: as of the 11pm Friday advisory, Emily is a category 4 hurricane once again. But, as with before, this may be a short-lived event. The latest recon flights have reported an open 10mi. diameter eyewall on the south & southeast sides of the storm along with a secondary wind maximum at a radius of 50mi., the first hints of another eyewall beginning to form and an eyewall replacement cycle to come. These fluctuations are expected with the storm, but pretty hard to predict. Once a day seems about commonplace, but can vary given the conditions around and within the storm.
During this reorganization phase, Emily once again has taken a stair-step towards the north, taking it on a path that would bring it precariously close to Jamaica sometime on Saturday. Upper-level steering winds are generally towards the west, but given the intensity of the storm and retrograding upper-low over S. Florida to its northwest, a slightly north of west-northwest path is likely in the shortterm, evening back out as the system nears Jamaica. In any case, it will be a close call for the island, and we can only hope that it spares them with a Charley/Ivan-like jog towards the west as it nears them.
Good news for one location, however, may spell bad news for another location. If the storm were to largely spare Jamaica, areas along the Yucutan Peninsula would likely see a more powerful storm. Most model guidance and the NHC official track currently call for the storm to pass near or over the tip of the Yucutan in 2-3 days' time; if so, this would spare the island from both the strongest part of the storm as well as the high wave action feared earlier this week. On its current path, however, it will likely pass just over the northern edge of the peninsula in about 2 and a half days.
Given inner-core fluctuations and the relatively small size of the circulation, a precise intensity is hard to pinpoint for that time; however, given what we have seen to date with the storm, somewhere in the category 3 range is a good bet, with the potential for both higher (given the high heat content of the NW Caribbean Sea) and lower (if shear increases instead of decreases) depending on the pattern evolution. Best call is for something in between at this time.
After that, the current NHC path towards the Mexico/Texas border and the Brownsville area looks good, although this may need to be adjusted slightly northward with time. A similar scenario to Dennis appears to be setting up with an upper-level low over S. Texas relatively cut-off from the main flow to the north.
How much this affects the ridge remains to be seen; however, it is further to the west than was seen with Dennis and does not appear to have to impetus to move towards the east or intensify to have a larger impact upon the track & intensity of the storm. Those from the Lake Charles, LA area and points south and west need to watch this storm in case its track begins to trend a bit further northward. The waters in the western Gulf are extremely warm, but upper-level conditions are forecast to grow increasingly unfavorable near landfall. After emerging off of the Yucutan, the storm should be in the middle end of category 2 strength, something it will likely hold to landfall.
While the storm should increase in size before that point, remember that relatively small storms can both intensify and weaken rather rapidly -- as we've seen in just the past 24hr -- making any intensity forecast problematic at this time, especially given the track uncertainty.
As for 99L -- there is a strong amount of shear currently over the storm, on the order of 30-40kt, leaving the center exposed well to the west of the area of deepest convection. This shear is in association with the same jet serving to ventilate Emily, for what it's worth. Were the shear to weaken, either in the vicinity of the storm or along its path as it moves west-northwest, it would have a chance to become better organized.
At this time, this does not appear as though it will be the case. It is still something to watch over the next few days, but Emily's still the only game in town. I'll have further updates as events warrant.
it sure is s. padre, i here it can get huge...
Sure are a lot of "if, ands, and buts" there.
Port Isabel?
That is one mean looking impressive storm!
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