Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
I'm not shedding any tears either.
Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 20
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 15, 2005
data from an Air Force plane and the satellite presentation indicate
that Emily has weakened during the day. The maximum flight level
wind recorded as the plane left the cyclone was 101 knots with a
minimum pressure of 969 mb. Initial intensity has been adjusted
downward to 90 knots and this is a generous estimate. It is not
uncommon for hurricanes to weaken as they move through the central
Caribbean Sea and interact with the mid oceanic upper-level trough.
Currently...water vapor images show a persistent large mid to
upper-low over the western Caribbean that is producing shear over
Emily. Neverthereless...the hurricane is putting up a good fight
against the shear. Models unanimously are quickly weakening the
upper-low as it moves westward. However...there are no indications
of such weakening yet...and in fact...the upper-level westerlies
toward the hurricane are stronger now than 12 hours ago. The models
insist on forecasting a more favorable upper-level environment. In
addition...Emily is heading for the western Caribbean Sea where the
oceanic heat content is high and historically cyclones intensify.
The best option despite the current weakening trend of Emily is to
keep the same intensity for the next 12 hours or so and forecast a
modest intensification therafter.
Emily has been moving westward or 280 degrees at about 17 knots and
there are no signs of turning toward the west-northwest yet.
Because Emily is being steered by a deep-layer-mean high to the
north...a gradual turn to the west-northwest is anticipated as the
hurricane moves toward the western edge of the high. Most of the
models have been forecasting this turn and so far it has not
materialized. The official forecast follows the model guidance but
it is on the south side of the track envelope.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 15/2100z 14.7n 72.8w 90 kt
12hr VT 16/0600z 15.2n 75.4w 90 kt
24hr VT 16/1800z 16.6n 78.9w 95 kt
36hr VT 17/0600z 18.3n 82.0w 100 kt
48hr VT 17/1800z 20.0n 85.5w 105 kt
72hr VT 18/1800z 22.5n 91.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 19/1800z 25.0n 96.0w 85 kt
120hr VT 20/1800z 27.0n 100.0w 50 kt...inland
Does anyone else feel that Emily won't be a threat to the US afterall?
Get some hurricane shutters, just to be safe.
Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, doors, and if it’s a major hurricane, the toilets. There are several types of shutters, all with advantages and disadvantages:
Plywood shutters: Advantage is that because you make them yourself, they're cheap. The disadvantage is that because you make them yourself, they will fall off.
Sheet metal shutters: These work well, once you get them all up. But once you get them up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps that will not heal until December.
Roll Down Shutters: The cream of the crop in shutters, they are very easy to use and will definitely serve their purpose. Sadly, you will have to sell your house to pay for them.
p.s. plywood should be minimum 5/8"
Too soon to tell--if Emily makes it into the Gulf, we have a new ballgame.
Could you expand on this one for me?
This is only my second hurricane season and I haven't heard that I need to protect the toilet! l-}
It was a joke. If the wind is coming up through your toilets, you're in a heap of trouble.
Our plywood does not fall off because we secure it with bolts imbedded into the brick with wingnuts securing it.
Miztiki, I'm not letting my guard down yet. Computer models and the NHC forecast model show Emily knocking on my door late Tuesday or early Wednesday. I think CindyDawg and I are going to get a direct hit, unless there are major changes from the current forecast.
In some floodprone areas, flooding can cause sewage from sanitary sewer lines to back up into houses through drain pipes. These backups not only cause damage that is difficult to repair but also create health hazards.
A good way to protect your house from sewage backups is to install backflow valves, which are designed to block drain pipes temporarily and prevent flow into the house.
Thanks for the clarification.
I guess since I'm on a septic system, I'm in good shape ;-}
Got plywood for all the windows (screwed to framing tapconned to the bricks) and have the new kevlar screening on order for the sliders and garage door openings. (at the rate the storms are coming, it won't be here in time for next couple, but I would have been OK in a normal year)
Emily looks better than it did earlier.
But, look at the storms that erupt out of the left side of Emily at the beginning of this frame:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Interesting post on this from Wright-Weather:
"There was a paper in Monthly Weather Review (Sept 2000)
on this same observed phenomena with Hurricane Luis in
1995. The following was noted:
1) a period of moderately intense wind shear and dry air
intrusion caused the eyewall convection to ingest dry
mid-level air and weaken
2) The collapsing convection produced a very stable LTO (low
level thunderstorm outflow) air mass ahead of itself
3) the convection near the center of the hurricane [Luis]
passed over this stable, low level air mass and weakened
4) once out of this region, the storm reintensified
I believe we are seeing this same process now with Emily."
Oh, and when we bought this house, it came equipped with a 12KW diesel generator all pre-wired and set up in it's own outbuilding. I only wish he'd gotten a propane fueled generator as diesel goes bad and I have no other equipment to use it in. We have a buried propane tank for stove and hot water heater.
Previous owner was real worried about Y2K. Had an ailing spouse and wanted to be totally self sufficient. We have our own well, septic, and he put in the generator.
Who told you diesel goes bad? Diesel can be kept for years.
They're recessed, but all but one of them are more than 48" on at least one side and I wasn't confident about splicing plywood and using the clips. Also, by the time I got around to doing anything last year, those clips were out of stock everywhere around here. I was lucky to get the plywood.
I tapconned firring strips around the inside of the openings and just screw the plywood in with drywall screws. The triple slider was the one that scared me the most, hence the kevlar screens. They should be in sometime next month
Everyone I know who uses diesel claims it will go bad. I use fuel stabilizer for the small amount I keep on hand.
I haven't had to board up my current home and have been dreading the thought. Those would sure make it a lot simpler.
Have one of those too--Durock cement boards work great.
Keep the tank full so condensation and rust will not occur. Diesel will remain stable for many years without stabilizer, keep plenty of filters on hand. Gasoline on the other hand can go bad but it will last a couple of years.
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