How about a Rio Grande landfall?
Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hey Nauti, I'm thinking all GOMers need to be alert for Emily. She is looking more northerly and IMHO, I don't think the ridge is going to be all that strong in the long run.
She's still a good distance SE of Jamaica. Full advisory due
within the hour.
I see more of the models have trended in TX's direction..
I would normally say that since she is strengthening too fast, it is pretty likely if she gets to cat 5, she would not sustain it until landfall.
But, since she will be hitting the Yuc pretty soon, she would weaken already and have time to re-strengthen over the Gulf and possibly make it to 5...sustaining until landfall.
Boy, I sure hope not.
Looks likea decent short wave coming through now on several models... not enough to pull it north like Dennis, but enough to keep it on a WNW/NW track. I'm becoming more confident of some sort of TX hit as time goes by.
***Hey Nauti, I'm thinking all GOMers need to be alert for Emily. She is looking more northerly and IMHO, I don't think the ridge is going to be all that strong in the long run.***
The local meteorologist is concerened about that here too.
http://www.kplctv.com/Global/link.asp?L=159592
Even when it rains here, I never get to see it.
uh oh
Winds holding at 131mph, pressure up again to 968mb.
707
URNT12 KNHC 151358
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/13:30:20Z
B. 14 deg 16 min N
070 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2852 m
D. 100 kt
E. 120 deg 008 nm
F. 208 deg 088 kt
G. 120 deg 008 nm
H. 968 mb
I. 13 C/ 3052 m
J. 22 C/ 3020 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-SE
M. CO/8/25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0505A EMILY OB 11
MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 11:54:30 Z
SURFACE CENTER DISPLACED FROM FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER
Well, as the link to the discussion in 406 points out... the northward trend should have been expected. We have seen the same thing with the prior storms this year, and there is no way the ridge was going to hold quite as strong as it was for a week straight. The main ridge is centered over the Atlantic, and we have continually seen it pulse in and out of the GOM for the past few weeks. It was strong recently, and looks to be pulsing out now (just in time for the storm to arrive). The affects will still be felt enough to keep the storm from hooking, but the weakness looks to be just enough to keep it on a fairly steady path.
People talking cat 5 are getting ahead of themselves, but this should be a sizeable storm... the worst option here is if it shoots through the Yucatan channel, because we will see no break in the waves it's building. A long track storm, without hitting some sort of landmass prior to landfall is going to have a heck of a surge.
Looks like an eye wall replacement going on. New NHC forecast will have a TX landfall. Forecast shear in the GOM will keep the intensity the same from the Yucatan to landfall.
go to mexico...go to mexico...go to mexico...
Biting our nails in Corpus Christi.
I'll search my links... looks like the same one I had last yr, but I did have that site with a loop.
....Emily a little weaker...still a dangerous hurricane...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Salinas westward to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border...and for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to Port-au-Prince.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 14.4 north...longitude 70.9 west or about 465 miles...745 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr ...And this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...Emily will be passing to the south or very near Jamaica on Saturday.
Data from a reconnaissance plane and satellite data indicate that Emily has weakened a little and maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles... 65 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km.
Latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 968 mb...28.59 inches.
Emily may produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Netherlands Antilles...and 3 to 6 inches are possible over portions of Hispaniola. Emily is also expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over Jamaica... with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...14.4 N... 70.9 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 968 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Avila
Are you sure it wasn't the sprinklers?
How about a Rio Grande landfall?
an Air Force plane currently observing the structure of Emily has reported concentric eyewalls of 8 and 25 N mi respectively. This suggests that Emily may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle...which would result in fluctuations in intensity. Because the last time the recon measured winds to support category four hurricane was early this morning...there is no eye observed on satellite imagery...and the cloud pattern has deteriorated...the initial intensity has been reduced to 110 kt in this advisory. The upper-level environment is not as favorable for strengthening as it was for Dennis last week. Water vapor images show a large upper-low over the western Caribbean and this feature will likely increase the shear over Emily. In fact...the SHIPS model is showing increasing shear over the western Caribbean. For the past few days...all global models were weakening the upper-low and they still do...but this feature has become larger instead. Therefore... some weakening is forecast but assuming that the global models will likely be partially correct in forecasting a favorable upper-level environment...Emily is forecast to remain as major hurricane over the western Caribbean Sea. Once Emily crosses Yucatan and weakens...none of the guidance suggests re-intensification over the western Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast follows this scenario.
Emily has continued to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 17 knots around the periphery a strong deep layer subtropical ridge which is the strongest from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern would keep Emily on this general track through the next 5 days. The official forecast is on the southern edge of the track envelope since all guidance has shown a northward bias so far.
The structure of Emily has been able to be observed by the Netherlands Antilles radar located at Curacao. - Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 15/1500z 14.4n 70.9w 110 kt 12hr VT 16/0000z 15.0n 73.5w 105 kt 24hr VT 16/1200z 16.5n 77.0w 105 kt 36hr VT 17/0000z 18.0n 80.0w 105 kt 48hr VT 17/1200z 19.5n 83.0w 105 kt 72hr VT 18/1200z 22.0n 89.0w 90 kt 96hr VT 19/1200z 25.0n 94.0w 90 kt 120hr VT 20/1200z 26.0n 98.5w 60 kt
Quite the opposite of my conceptions.
They should give me a job. ;-)
I wonder if it matters that I don't have a met degree.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.