The only problem I have with that conjecture is that the Iranians don't really like Arabs any more than Afghanis do, and I can't quite see Bin Laden putting himself entirely at the mercy of those non-Arab mullahs who could ostensibly turn him and his sons into bargaining chips at any convenient moment.
If he were in Iran, he would forfeit the ISI protection that he has (had) in the Taliban-supporting Pakistani military.
He may be in the same location to which he fled during that atrociously wrong-headed (really incomprehensible!) 48 hour "cease fire" at the battle for Tora Bora in early December of 2001. The part of this article which I believe to be totally true is that Porter Goss & the top brass have known all along exactly where he is, but - as the article reasons - we aren't able (or are not yet ready) to go in like "damn the torpedos, full speed ahead!"
Too much bad, possibly fatal fall out could occur, if we upset the balance by going into Pakistan. It could tip things in the direction of the overthrow (and assassination) of Musharraf by radical islamic fundamentalist factions, at which point we would have gained nothing by having thrown the Taliban out of Afghanistan, because the entire regime would reconstitute in Pakistan with NUKES! That is the reason for which we are playing it safe at this moment.
If Bin Laden is in Iran, the same holds true. Our military is already stretched very thin, and not capable of taking on Iran........unless we conduct an "October surprise" and blitz krieg Iran strategically.
Thanks for the thought provoking response, though!
Char :)
I see our only real chance in Iran is to overthrow the government. Since Musharraf has already survived at least two assassination attempts your argument does make sense .... It's kind of sad that it's taking longer to get OBL then it took the US to defeat Germany and Japan in WWII. But I don't really think this is a WOT, but it is the first real real war over the ownership ... control and use of nuclear weapons. Having the ISI give OBL Pakistan's nukes is even scarier then Iran getting them .....