ping
It is interesting how this is "deja vu all over again".
Last year at this time, Europe had been given a 30-day deadline (it might have been 8/15 then as well), UBL was out with a tape (I think), or there was chatter about his martyrdom and a coming tape (later disproved by his pre-election Oct/Nov 2004 tape), that "Azzam" kid from CA was doing his own tape, "two bows" (8/8) chatter, and there was speculation about the sequencing of events (Europe vs America; UBL pre-attack tape vs UBL post-attack tape; previously unseen pics posted from Feb 98 "Worldwide Front" founding (and time of non-public fatwa), etc, etc)
We are approaching a series of high-risk events that, though separate, are indirectly related in Jihadi perceptions and all coming in the next two weeks (Iraq constitutional deadline, Israeli Gaza withdrawal, and European deadline all being 8/15).
My guess is an escalating and coordinated wave of attacks in the next couple weeks (already started in UK) targeting Israel ("Zionist occupiers"), Iraq ("Crusader occupiers") and Europe (coalition partners UK, Italy, Denmark, Netherlands, and Poland are high risk) with a major attempt here either nearly simultaneously (Israel+Iraq+Europe+America=4) or a sequence of attacks over several weeks.
A "last, final (really, we mean it this time) warning" from UBL in an imminent tape to be released (if they get someone to air it) is also a possibility. The bigger an attack the more "justification" it needs. AQ for a decade has been just one big PR operation. Attacks are the means to the end, not the end. There are degrees of evil in everything - - even Jihad. For their purposes, unprovoked, unprecedented, large-scale WMD against civilians without accompanying "justification" or "forewarning" is beyond the pale - - not for their own moral sensibilities, but for their larger objective as it might "turn off" the regional audience of moderates they are desperately seeking to "convert" to Jihad (even the AQ leaders were arguing about calibrating 9/11 to not have "overkill"). So they need either to incite provocation for pretext (making Iraq and Gaza a "genocide"), or carefully choreograph the justification (through a series of messages, fatwas and possible timings), or both.
But these are all just guesses. Timing (when) is not a central issue as it can be adjusted most easily. Manpower (who), method (what and how), location (where) and justification (why) cannot. However, because timing is tied to the other factors (who, what, where, why, and how) to some degree and for various reasons, certain timeframes (as opposed to specific dates) are more relevant than others.
This is possibly one of the most relevant time frames since 9/11.
But as are most things in life (as few things in life are certain), this is just a guess.