Tropical Storm Emily

NOAA ^ | July 10, 2005 | National Hurricane Center

[Tuxedo]

Thanks for the update. We could sure use the rain here in Texas.

[Dog Gone]

The new runs are out. Crashing and burning in Venezuela seems less likely, and an increased threat to the western Gulf more likely.

[RHM3]

Recon just found 79 flight-level winds...

I believe it was near the 850MB level of the atmosphere...so the translation is basically a borderline TS/cat 1 hurricane. Probably 60KT at 11PM but it wouldn't take much more at all to earn hurricane status soon. -rob

[Dog Gone]

If it doesn't grind ashore in South America, which no model even begins to indicate, it will be at least a CAT 1 tomorrow. Every condition for it to improve dramatically will be in place in the next couple of days.

[RHM3]

Also pressure is now 996MB per the latest vortex data message. Actually just saw a supplementary vortex message that showed those winds were as a matter of fact at the 700MB level. That would mean the 90% reduction rule is applied, and thus were are left w/ an approx 70KT system.

If I decoded the level correctly, we have a hurricane. We'll see at 11 though...if it's not a hurricane it's going to be very close.

[Dog Gone]

There's nothing wimpy about this infrared loop.

[RHM3]

Ba-da-bing...

Tropical Storm EMILY Update

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UPDATE

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000
WTNT65 KNHC 140154
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.

AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Dog Gone]

Just for emphasis

EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE

[RHM3]

And 80KT at that...almost a cat 2.

[Dog Gone]

It's probably appropriate to start a new thread with an accurate title.

[NautiNurse]

Done ;o)

Hurricane Emily

[greccogirl]

Good, glad to hear it.