Posted on 07/10/2005 8:02:57 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005
...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
Thanks for the update. We could sure use the rain here in Texas.
Recon just found 79 flight-level winds...
I believe it was near the 850MB level of the atmosphere...so the translation is basically a borderline TS/cat 1 hurricane. Probably 60KT at 11PM but it wouldn't take much more at all to earn hurricane status soon. -rob
If it doesn't grind ashore in South America, which no model even begins to indicate, it will be at least a CAT 1 tomorrow. Every condition for it to improve dramatically will be in place in the next couple of days.
Also pressure is now 996MB per the latest vortex data message. Actually just saw a supplementary vortex message that showed those winds were as a matter of fact at the 700MB level. That would mean the 90% reduction rule is applied, and thus were are left w/ an approx 70KT system.
If I decoded the level correctly, we have a hurricane. We'll see at 11 though...if it's not a hurricane it's going to be very close.
Ba-da-bing...
Tropical Storm EMILY Update
EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE
And 80KT at that...almost a cat 2.
It's probably appropriate to start a new thread with an accurate title.
Good, glad to hear it.
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