Hmm
Posted on 07/10/2005 8:02:57 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005
...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
Well, there are lots of prophesies in the Bible about the end times - and it's not all fun and games.
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 10, 2005
conventional and microwave satellite images indicate the strong
tropical wave about 1280 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has
strengthened into Tropical Depression Five. The initial intensity
of 25 kt is based on a satellite intensity estimate of 25 kt from
both TAFB and SAB. Since the 00z satellite classifications...a
small burst of deep convection has developed near the well-defined
low-level center...which further supports at least 25-kt intensity.
The initial motion estimate is 270/10. The NHC model guidance is in
reasonable agreement on a general westward track through 24-36
hours...with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest after that.
The GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS...and medium BAM models take the cyclone
across the central to northern Lesser Antilles in 84 to 96 hours
toward a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. By day 5...
the ridge between Bermuda and the Lesser Antilles is forecast to
build back in and possibly turn the cyclone on a more westward
track over or near Puerto Rico and the domincian Republic.
The depression...while well-defined at the surface and aloft...is
embedded within only a moderately moist environment as noted in
water vapor imagery. As such...occasional intrusions of dry air
will briefly weaken the convection near the center...which should
only allow for slow intensification to occur for the first 48 hours
or so. After that...the combination of weak vertical shear...near
29c SSTs...and an increasingly more moist environment should allow
for some modest intensification to occur. The official forecast is
close to the SHIPS model...but not nearly as robust as the GFDL
model...which brings the cyclone up to 112 kt in 120 hours or so.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/0300z 10.8n 42.9w 25 kt
12hr VT 11/1200z 11.0n 44.5w 30 kt
24hr VT 12/0000z 11.5n 46.7w 35 kt
36hr VT 12/1200z 12.1n 49.0w 40 kt
48hr VT 13/0000z 12.8n 51.7w 50 kt
72hr VT 14/0000z 14.5n 57.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 15/0000z 16.5n 63.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 16/0000z 19.5n 69.0w 75 kt
Don't know about that, but if he did it 10 days ago I'm impressed. :)
Hmm
I think he was still thinking a NO hit last night. He (assuming we are talking about Bastardi), is quite stubborn... and often quite wrong.
And this is relevant to the normal functioning of the earth how?
Maybe California will be destroyed by an earthquake and you'll think that was "normal". BTW, I live in CA.
Couldn't tell you who it was. I'm mostly reading a book with the occasional foray to the headlines here with the TV on Fox News.
Caught part of an interview and the guy showed TD#5 and said that it looked bad for the Atlantic Coast. Then it went back to Geraldo went back to blathering and rehashing Dennis and I went back to reading.
Considering what happened to Dennis today, it seems as if God is still on our side.
And this is relevant to the normal functioning of the earth how?
I hear hurricanes ablowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers over flowing.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.
Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.
Hope you got your things together.
Hope you are quite prepared to die.
Looks like we’re in for nasty weather.
One eye is taken for an eye.
LOL!
Too bad nothing came of it. Could have been some good stuff.
Exactly.. I was all set for an all-out food fight.
Geraldo was talking to a guy from Accuweather a while ago on FoxNews - and told Gerry he'd be getting some frequent flyer miles because he & Emily had a date in the Carolinas in 190 days.
ooops. fat fingered it... 10 days, not 190...
I didn't get a chance on the Dennis Live Thread(s) to thank you for the great job you did. If Emily starts cranking up, hope to hear from you again.
No problem, I enjoy tracking the storms... any info I can share is certainly worth sharing if people find it useful. I am sure I will pipe in on this storm, but I was hoping for a break. :)
!
I guess it is appropriate that this is the first thread I post to on my return to FR.
Gee, I missed my storm watch buddies yesterday.
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