7/8/2005, 5:20 p.m. ET
By ROBERT BURNS - The Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. and Iraqi forces have "mostly eliminated" the ability of insurgents to conduct sustained, high-intensity attacks in Baghdad, the top U.S. commander in the Iraqi capital said Friday.
Maj. Gen. William G. Webster Jr. said in a video-teleconference interview from Baghdad with reporters at the Pentagon that offensive operations by U.S. and Iraqi troops in recent weeks had sharply reduced the number of insurgent bombings. But he cautioned against concluding that the insurgency has been broken.
"It's very difficult to know it's over," Webster said.
There were 14 to 21 car bombings per week in Baghdad before the May 22 start of the U.S. portion of the latest offensive, dubbed Operation Lightning, he said. That has dropped to about seven or eight a week now, Webster said, attributing the improvement to the disruption of insurgent cells and the availability of more and better intelligence.
"There are some more threats ahead," he said. "I do believe, however, that the ability of these insurgents to conduct sustained, high-intensity operations as they did last year, we've mostly eliminated that."
He said that about 1,700 suspected insurgents had been captured during Operation Lightning, including 51 foreigners.
Despite those gains, Webster said the future course of the insurgency was uncertain.
"When you're talking about an insurgency in a country like this where the borders are still rather porous and folks can still come in and there is money available to hire local criminals and others to participate in the fight, it is very difficult to get a day-to-day estimate of the number of people you're fighting," he said.
On the other hand, he predicted that, "in the next couple of months we will not see sustained, long bloody months in Baghdad."
The latest twist to the insurgency has been a surge in violence against foreign diplomats. Al-Qaida in Iraq claimed in a Web posting that it had killed Egypt's chief diplomat in Baghdad, Ihab al-Sherif, and warned it would go after "as many ambassadors as we can" to punish countries that support Iraq's U.S.-backed leadership.
Webster said al-Sherif's body had not been found and that his forces had no leads in the case.
"We recognize that all of our forces must be available to help protect our international diplomats who are helping to begin relations with this new democratic government," he said, adding that he was not sure that stepped-up security for foreign missions' diplomats would feature U.S. troops directly guarding the envoys. "We've not finalized our plan yet, but we certainly recognize we've got to do something very quickly."
Webster painted a remarkably positive picture of the prospects for improving security in Baghdad. By October, when Iraqis are scheduled to vote on a new constitution, there should be a full division of Iraqi army soldiers, numbering about 18,000, sufficiently trained to take the lead in securing the Iraqi capital, he said.
There are now about 15,000 Iraqi soldiers, in various stages of training, in the Baghdad area that Webster commands. Of those, about one-third are sufficiently trained to control territory in the capital city, he said.
Webster's force, led by the 3rd Infantry Division, consists of about 30,000 troops — all but 1,000 of which are Americans. The non-U.S. troops are from Macedonia, Estonia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia.
By Sgt. Sara Wood, USA - American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, July 8, 2005 – Iraqi security forces in and around Baghdad are making progress in their training and will be ready to assume responsibility for security measures for the October elections, the area's top U.S. commander said today.
Speaking by satellite from Baghdad in a Pentagon news briefing, Army Maj. Gen. William Webster, commander of Task Force Baghdad and the 3rd Infantry Division, said two Iraqi brigades already are operating on their own in Baghdad, and two more will be operational in about two months. The remaining two brigades that will make up the Iraqi army division in Baghdad will be ready by the elections, he added.
The plan is for the Iraqi division, made up of six brigades, along with Iraqi special police and commandos, to plan and conduct security for the elections in Baghdad, with backup from U.S. forces, he said. Iraqi forces are facing difficulties in supporting themselves logistically for long-term operations, he explained, and it will be at least spring before they are fully independent in that capacity.
Iraqi and coalition forces have been successful at reducing the number of vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attacks in Baghdad, largely due to an increased presence of Iraqi forces, Webster said.
"We attribute our success to better trained and experienced Iraqi security forces patrolling the streets, talking to the Iraqi people and gathering greater intelligence," he said. "The people are gaining more confidence, and they're providing them lots of information."
Since the beginning of Operation Lightning in May, the number of vehicle-borne IED attacks per week in Baghdad has been cut in half, thousands of suspects have been captured, including 51 foreign fighters, and more than 2,500 traffic-control points have been established, the general said. The insurgency in Baghdad has been suppressed to a point where political and economic progress can continue, and despite continued threats, the terrorists will not maintain a large presence there, he said.
"We don't think the enemy is capable of sustained, long-term operations against us and the Iraqi security forces," he said.
Defeat of the insurgency, however, is a more ambiguous concept, Webster said. The insurgents are highly adaptable enemies who are hard to keep track of, he explained.
"It's very difficult to know it's over until the Iraqi people are comfortable with the level of security that they have around them and they're able to go on with their lives in a normal way," he said.
Iraqi and coalition forces are continually improving in their tactics against insurgents, he said, and the strength of the government and confidence of the Iraqi people prove there is hope for the future of Iraq.