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"They'd take Taiwan."

Sounds easy but it isn't. Taiwan has a capable air force and navy...China does not have a great amphib infrastructure and even less capable when you consider training. There are some easily defensive mountains in Taiwan IF they got on shore in any size force.

The US air power would be available on the initial assault in a standoff mode to help reduce the Chinese aircraft. We are not going to have 2 carriers in the Pacific fleet that will be there in short order. In reality, the Chinese ability to take Taiwan is in serious doubt.

"They can project force all the way to Japan if they so chose"

All the way...to Japan...that's not that far...and they couldn't sustain an attack on Japan,,,the Japanese airpower and navy is very technologically sound. You are totally overestimating the ability of Japan to project power. Striking at somebody is not real projection of power. They couldn't grap anything as important as Taiwan or Japan and would never be able to logistically maintain it even if they could. Those forces would be cut off very quickly with mulitiple carriers and deep long range strike aircraft pounding the Chinese and their sealanes for reinforcements and supply.

All the way...to Japan...that's not that far...and they couldn't sustain an attack on Japan,,,the Japanese air power and navy is very technologically sound.

Lets also keep in mind that China is still a poor nation. Japan, though it is only allowed to spend 1% of it's budget on defense spends a comparable amount on defense($45.841 billion) to China ($67.49 billion). True, Japan's military is only good for defending Japan, but it's very good at what it does. If China was stupid enough to attack Japan conventionally, the Japanese would mop the floor with them.

Of course there's always the nuclear problem with China. We need to pursue missile defense with Japan with abandon. Japan is the only other country with the technological savvy to truly help us out on this one.

"Taiwan has a capable air force and navy...China does not have a great amphib infrastructure and even less capable when you consider training. There are some easily defensive mountains in Taiwan IF they got on shore in any size force."

China does have special forces though. If communications and power are sufficiently disrupted, even for a short time, the Taiwan military simply won't have time to properly react. This, of course, assumes a worst-case scenario where Taiwan and the US have no intelligence that an attack is coming, and China's forces already on the island are successful in their missions.

"The US air power would be available on the initial assault in a standoff mode to help reduce the Chinese aircraft."

I would worry far less about China's air power than I would about their missiles and troops. China does have decent air and submarine capabilities at this point. Their air force was of particular interest to military folks testifying before the Senate. Their pilots are, apparently, pretty decent. Granted they're not going to win any sustained fight with the US, but a fast and overwhelming strike could very well bring Taiwan under China's control before the US and Taiwan defensive plans can be put into place.

"In reality, the Chinese ability to take Taiwan is in serious doubt."

That depends entirely on how quickly and how quietly they move to do so. In open, sustained combat? I agree with you that they'd have a heck of a time. With a fast and furious first strike following a coordinated special forces sabotage campaign? I don't think anyone could help Taiwan in that case.

"All the way...to Japan...that's not that far"

No, but who else, realistically, do they have to attack? They're not going after Russia; they're allies. They aren't hitting up the Middle Eastern countries, as they're a nice distraction for US forces. They're not going after North Korea unless and until it brings South Korea completely away from the US and into their arms. They've never had much of a reason to develop the ability to project force any substantial distance. However, their recent sub improvements shows that they're at least beginning to look forward to developing worldwide force projection capabilities.

"and they couldn't sustain an attack on Japan"

I think a lot of that would depend on how generous North and South Korea are with their airspace and soil. China certainly has the air power and naval power to keep Japan from any sort of counter-attack. The real question of it would be whether China has the capability to get enough boots on Japanese soil to seal the deal. Certainly they could devastate Japan's cities and open military targets. Of course, once Japan's allies get involved (primarily the US, obviously), things start looking mighty bleak for China.

"Japanese airpower and navy is very technologically sound."

They have nice toys, courtesy of the US (that's rather ironic, isn't it?), but they don't develop too many things too terribly far in terms of military due to restrictions in place in their constitution. Following the obliteration of two cities (three if you count the utterly destroyed Tokyo), the good folks of Japan decided that any future military probably shouldn't have offensive capabilities, so as to prevent a repeat of the loss and destruction wrought upon them. While they can aptly defend themselves, anyone adopting a siege mentality with respect to military strategy is almost invariably doomed to defeat. Again, it's the US that's the ace in the hole for Japan.

"They couldn't grap anything as important as Taiwan or Japan and would never be able to logistically maintain it even if they could. Those forces would be cut off very quickly with mulitiple carriers and deep long range strike aircraft pounding the Chinese and their sealanes for reinforcements and supply."

You can only suppress so much with air power. You're again discounting China's air and naval power, which has been rapidly developed since the mid 90s. The Chinese have worked hard to create a military that can openly challenge any American strike effectively, and we've been cutting down our own capabilities. In addition to that, we're barely able to maintain our forces in Iraq. We're spread out all over hell between Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan, and NATO commitments around the world. If we were to go to war against China, it's difficult to say just who could show up for our side. Just having airplane and carriers in the area doesn't stop someone like China from throwing its weight around. We'd need tanks, troops, bombers, and more to even begin to launch a serious large-scale defense of Taiwan, and we'd need to come up with those things mighty quick. If we leave Taiwan to defend itself for a month, there may not be anyone left to defend by the time we get there.