Bill Gertz told KSFO's Barbara Simpson (2 July, Sat.) that American corporations in China are told that they must lobby Washington to represent the Chi-coms' interests. Otherwise they may not be allowed to continue to do business in China.
So far the notorious Rep. Jim Moran (D, Va) backs the sale of UNOCAL plus about twenty other elected "representatives" of U.S. citizens. See, http://www.goodbyejim.com and http://www.morantics.com. Only about twenty? (More lobbying, useful idiots!) I'd call that ball one.
The Chi-coms' White House connection is Mark McKinnon, former media advisor to Pres. Bush, who is Vice Chairman of Public Strategies. He is CNOOC's media adviser and lobbyist. That's strike one on us.
And how many times has the Committee on Foreign Investments, an inter-agency committee chaired by the Secretary of Treasury, said no? Strike two.
Mr. Gertz also told Ms Simpson and her listeners that Bush Administration policy makers are divided between pro-business and pro-national security. Business almost always wins over national security. Strike three.
The U.S. just struck out.
Good bye UNOCAL.
I don't think so. CNOOC was late into this game and that's going to cause problems for them. I predict Chevron will sweeten its offer for Unocal to move very close to the CNOOC offer early next month. This will not leave CNOOC enough time to make a decision on a counter offer and to have this counter offer fully evaluated by Unocal shareholders before they vote on Chevron's offer on August 10. Unocal shareholders will not want to wait for the lengthy regulatory review of CNOOC's offer, and a majority of them will vote to accept Chevron's offer. Patriotism and anti-communist sentiment will play a significant unspoken role in this vote. Game, set, and match to Chevron.
Institutions own about 84% of Unocal's stock, and most of those money managers want this deal to happen in 2005 so they can lock in big gains on their Unocal stock and improve their 2005 performance bonus, (although you won't hear them say that.) If CNOOC buys Unocal, the regulatory and national security review may not be completed until next year, and those money managers don't want to wait until next year to lock in their capital gains. If a CNOOC deal runs into regulatory trouble, Unocal's stock price could start slipping and sliding and none of the current owners want to see that happen.