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To: RaceBannon
I comprehend the point you are trying to make. The thing is that the plan has several major conundrums. One of the major ones is the Iranian youth, who are pro-American, pro-freedom and a pivot point that would make Iran shine even brighter than Turkey in the Islamic world sometime in the future. The mullah demagogues and their cabals have already lost ….their power is only anchored in the past (an analogy would be like you have 10 kids, but those kids actually being mine …..you may think that you are a father, but in reality your lineage ended way back). Now, if we bring in the MEK (which are abhorred in Iran) and their quasi-shiite/Marxist principles, and have them fight proxy wars (which is the correct term for what the plan proposes) against the Mullah core, that will be the perfect way for the mullahs to make their vigor focal-point to shift from the past to the present AND future. The youth with turn in less than a week to probably the most anti-American movement in the region, and it would be back to 1979 ….only this time it would be more protracted and far more intense.

Oh, and not only that but once the MEK got a real foothold they would never be willing to give it up. And playing assassination tango with one group being played to hit another would only lead to large parts of the nation collapsing into cesspools of vitriol, or even worse into chaos zones. In a nutshell the civil war that the silly Liberals were screaming might happen in Iraq would instead be realized across the border in Iran.

Anyways, to succinctly make my points let me say a couple of things. For one the CIA tried such shadow games several times in the past, and their experiments either outright failed, or even worse made the target even gather more clout (Castro, for example, has a lot to thank the CIA for). The other point is that we would basically be giving the entire Iranian youth to one of the above groups (the MEK or the Mullahs ….most probably the Mullahs since the MEK are anathema). All for a plan that not only has a high chance of failure, not only has too many ways to fail, but also has a rich history of similar plans going to the big stomping ground above.

Anyways, just my thoughts again. But let me put it another way. Imagine your typical Iranian youth. Pro-freedom, pro-American, pro-moving forward. Now imagine he or she learns that the US aided (either through logistics, financing, or both) an entry by the MEK (or similar groups) and started a proxy war within Iran against the mullahs. Tell me how that would go down in Iran? We would basically loose all hope in that nation for at least one generation ….the current one.

14 posted on 07/05/2005 7:05:19 PM PDT by spetznaz (Nuclear tipped ICBMs: The Ultimate Phallic Symbol.)
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To: spetznaz

Excellent analysis.

Thank you


15 posted on 07/05/2005 7:09:22 PM PDT by nuconvert (No More Axis of Evil by Christmas ! TLR) [there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: spetznaz

you covered my fears, too.

I think the plan is too dangerous to implement.

But, what else is there?

The students cannot just have arms given to them. We dont want martyrs.

In my opinion, the only other option is a massive aerial assault on the nuke plants.

And THAT will turn the students against us, too. And, it will give the MEK green light to go in without our consent/advice/control

If we let Israel do it, we ignite the whole Islamic world. If we do it, we ignite 75% of the Islamic world.

Either way, if Jimmy Carter had only let us go in 25 years ago.....


16 posted on 07/05/2005 7:10:17 PM PDT by RaceBannon ((Prov 28:1 KJV) The wicked flee when no man pursueth: but the righteous are bold as a lion.)
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