US Hegemony In The Far East Under Seige

Global Politician ^ | 6/10/2005 | Angelique van Engelen

[Gengis Khan]

The rise to prominency on the world stage of China and India has implications for the US hegemony in the Far East. Over the past six months, moves and counter moves have been being made by the major players in the region that all were motivated by one factor; the scramble for energy resources. There's no international etiquette apart from the legislation that prevents war, but US foreign policy which is clearly centered around 'serving the US interests' is being duplicated by the rapidly developing countries in the East. Manishankar Aiyer, petroleum and natural gas minister of India spoke for the entire region when he put his country's foreign policy down to anything securing a tangible quantity of energy. "We need 100 million standard cubic meters per day of natural gas by 2025. Can America supply us that? I am only looking at securing energy security for the country", he told reporters on the sidelines of the Confederation of the Indian Industries. This is basically what 22nd Century foreign policy is all about.

It appears that the further from home, the more blunt the US deliberations for continuing or establishing their troops get. Energy and resources are the focal point of the role the Americans are carving out for themselves in the Far East. This has always been the case, but it's become more prevalent as the Asian nations are emulating tactics employed. At rapid pace. All makes for a great exercise in tension management with possibilities of going to war less immediate as the consequences are greater in magnitude.

Over the course of this year alone, the moves made by the US, shifting its presence around indicates a level of franticness that hasn't been seen for much of the past decade. They include the decision to sell fighter jets to Pakistan, improving economic ties with India, closer economic bonds with China, a complete revival of relations with Indonesia and signing a military pact with Japan that's meant to counterbalance Chinese expansionist threats.

The intensity of most of the US relations in the Far East has increased. "No bilateral relationship during US President George W. Bush's first term improved as much as that between the US and India", according to former US ambassador to India, Robert D. Blackwill. For that matter, the Japanese are saying the same. And the Indonesians. Even the Chinese might find reasons to feel better loved. The Americans are simply all over the place.

The US is conducting a multi polar policy in the Far East to maintain its hegemony on all fronts. With regard to China, the relationship is undergoing an intensive test which has implications for the US strategy for the region as a whole. The aim of the game is clearly a policy of containment on a military level whilst encouraging the country somewhat to develop economically and make it feel good about hosting the Olympics in 2008. The level of trust bestowed on China is pretty much purely economic. China knows this, the US knows this and the rest of the region is getting involved on every conceivable level in the scramble for energy that drives this process.

If only taken from the economic angle, the US is the partner that likely will have to learn to swallow some pride in its China dealings. Because it's on the economical front that China is likely to outpace US influence first.

US influence in the Far East has been hard earned. For over 60 years it has been playing a prominent role in the Far East, a region that it gained access to with considerable difficulty, not least because of China's impenetrability.

The US' strong reaction to the European near-decision last March to lift their arms embargo against China shows how little the US wants its military position undermined. An armed to the teeth China might lead to a situation it no doubt considers among the worst of worse case scenarios in any future Far East developments.

The most tangible counter move made by the US was its February cementing of its military bonds with Japan. The two countries signed a joint statement, designating Taiwan as a "common strategic objective". The deal, intended to strengthen security and defense cooperation, set "common strategic objectives" to deal with new threats such as terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. China reacted angrily, because its power is curbed by the deal, which was accompanied by a public request for it to show some more transparency. China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan described the deal as "a bilateral scheme spawned during the Cold War period".

The US is relentless however in working on Japan for it to become its Britain of the Far East. It is planning to conduct joint research on a theater missile defense (TMD) system. This is intended to be in a developmental stage next year. The TMD is to target North Korea's Nodong and Daepodong missiles and will also have a capability of reaching China's Dong Feng nuclear base.

Analysts say that the defense system is what the US hopes will enable it to maintain its hegemony in the region. Nuclear capability is what holds the most sway over maintaining power in this region, it appears. Even Taiwan, wanting its independence, has started to rely on strategic weapons. Recently, it publicly tested its first strategic missile, the Hsiung Feng cruise missile, developed by the military-run Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology and this worries the Chinese sick. The missile has a range of 1,000 kilometres and could be used to attack military bases in southeast China, the China Times wrote. It added that the 'political and military impact would be far-reaching.'

China sees Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification since they split at the end of the civil war in 1949, and has repeatedly threatened to invade if the island moves towards formal independence.

Despite Chinese troop deployment along the Taiwan Strait, it is unlikely China will go to war over the issue any time soon. Observers say China has the 2008 Summer Olympics to worry about. Which might well be true. The Chinese, stifled in developing militarily, are very aware of their economic power and the value of their market for the international world. The more this process continues and takes hold, the less they are likely to be wanting to exercise military muscle power. Observers also reason that after 2008, the US military will probably have substantially disengaged from Iraq and Japan's military will be on its way to a full build-up, counterbalancing the Chinese power.

The only problem the US encounters in its military relationship with Japan is that it isn't strictly military at all because the Japanese constitution prohibits the use of force as a means of settling international disputes. Should it come to blows, this would be a problem. The Japanese, as the land lies now, are committed to fight only if Japan is invaded, and then only on Japanese soil. For the alliance to work, the Japanese need to make a few changes to article 9 of their constitution. Which they might not be totally averse to. There is growing support in Japan for improved collaboration with the US on the military front, which is undergoing drastic change at the moment with the closure of the Japanese base at Okinawa and consolidation of the US presence. Japan is after China and India the region's third largest energy consumper and is expected to continue increasing its consumption dramatically.

Washington is bound to walk a fine line to not upset the Chinese in forging a more strategic and stronger military relationship with Japan and still relying on Beijing to play the decisive role in negotiating with North Korea in talks that Japan, Russia and South Korea also are involved in. But then, China's reason for wishing North Korea to stop its nuclear program won't be inspired by love for the US. As a matter of fact, the Chinese are repaying Washington with a fresh dose of its medicine in its own backyard, forging ties with various Latin American players. Relations between Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, and China have recently drastically improved. Venezuela says it's diversifying its markets as a means to reduce its dependence on the United States, which amounts to over 60 percent of its exports. The moves seem however conspicuously political in nature. Russia is also part of the clan that counteracts the US' efforts to vilify Venezuala's current regime. As is India, which recently signed six major deals with the country.

Also elsewhere in Latin America does China display a similar eagerness for supporting anti US governments, meanwhile shopping around for natural resources. They assisted the Brazilians to send satellites to space, a move that worried the US not least because Brazil is high on the list of countries that run a nuclear programs that are deemed illicit. It is not willing to allow international inspectors to inspect its program, which is likely supported by no one else but China. The two countries have close official bilateral ties too, as China backs Brazil for a seat on the U.N. Security Council. In return, Brasil supports China's unequivocal claim to Taiwan and Tibet.

The recent international buying sprees of high level Chinese officials for minerals in countries around the globe testify of the kind of barbarianism that's the motive behind most countries' foreign policies; it's inspired by the wish to establish structures providing for a rapidly emerging population with demands that are increasingly developing on a par with any Western nation.

Economists say that China's development is mainly road and motor vehicle driven. Years ago the Chinese brought the bicycle to popularity but now the same people want cars, petrol stations, roads and motorways. The war in Iraq has perhaps taken the attention away from China's speedy development over recent years, but had this not been the case, there would have been an even bigger understanding of just how rapid China's evolving. By the year 2000, the country had constructed just over 10,000 miles of highways and by the end of 2004, it had more than doubled. That's about four times the length of the Wall, which is about 4,100 miles and which took over 2000 years to build. The International Energy Agency estimates that oil imports by China are likely to double by 2010, reaching four million barrels a day.

The Indians pretty much are up to the same tricks and are a bit louder about their success at creating friction with the United States. "None of us in Asia should fall victim to the strategies of outsiders. The only way to counter the geopolitics of others is to have our own geopolitics" said Aiyer. His country is making headway in sidestepping old rivalries -like the one with Myanmar- in the region and securing access to energy resources way ahead of when it needs them. Although India is home to more than 15 percent of the world's population, it accounts for only 3 percent of world oil consumption. China, by contrast, consumes 7.6 percent of the world's oil. By 2020 India is expected to have to import 80 percent of its energy needs.

Even though India is not a huge consumer of energy yet, its one billion population will soon be and India's decision to make oil central to its foreign policy evidences it is looking ahead more than most powers in this region. This is mainly because the country feels it cannot afford to lose out to China, which has been snatching oil deals from under its nose continuously, notably in Africa and Indonesia during times oil prices were way lower.

Indian negotiations with Iran over a pipeline to India via Pakistan are the main source of friction with the US, which is pursuing a policy of isolating Iran. India, replicating US logic, says that by having the pipeline pass through Pakistan, it can ameliorate relations with this country in one move. The rhetoric falls just about short of talk of democracy. The deal with Iran is expected to be signed in June. Russia is also part of it.

India is highly dependent on oil imports. Some seventy percent of India's oil is imported and oil accounts for one third of the total value of all India's imports. Even though India is currently only a relatively small oil consumer, its future deals are likely to impact on world geopolitics. India's car market is on a par with China in terms of growth, which is driving oil consumption and soaring imports prognoses. However, the country fears it has lost the first round in the battle for oil deals to China, which struck up bargains in Africa and Indonesia when the markets were trading at low prices. Most deals signed by the Indians were at way higher price levels.

Indonesia is an energy rich country which is likely to come to the fore more in future years. The US recently revived its ties with this country after years of stumbling over its poor human rights record as the main reason for holding off any relations. In an opening move, it's granted Indonesia the sale of non lethal weaponry, ending a 12-year boycott. This country, with over 210 million people, is said to have the potential to either become a bridge between the U.S. and other Islamic peoples, or an obstruction to better relations. But what eventually turns out from this, remains to be seen. The relationship has shown its difficulties and trust is yet far to be sought.