Posted on 07/04/2005 11:01:56 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger may be down but he's not out, say an array of political experts, who predict the former action-movie hero will be able to overcome sagging poll numbers and regain his popularity.
Despite talk that Schwarzenegger and lawmakers will reach a compromise on his government-reform proposals, voters will go to the polls Nov. 8 to decide the issues, experts say, and the former movie hero will portray the results -- whatever they are -- as a Hollywood ending to his battle for the common man.
"If I was the governor, I'd say that passage of even one measure in the special election was a fantastic victory," said Jack Pitney of Claremont McKenna College.
David McCuan, a political scientist at Cal State Sonoma, said he can't wait to see Schwarzenegger's strategy in campaigning for his spending and reform proposals and his response to the results.
"It's where the action is," he said, "in the immediate buildup to the fight and the spin right afterward."
Even the most skeptical analysts said unfolding events are all part of the Republican governor's script, from the ups and downs in popularity, to the tangles and makeups with the Legislature's dominant Democrats on myriad issues.
After a Field Poll last month showed Schwarzenegger's job-approval rating plummeting to 37 percent among registered voters, the governor held a news conference in Sacramento where he expressed a willingness to compromise on a plan for the 2005-06 budget, as well as the reform initiatives he's placed on the Nov. 8 special-election ballot.
"The specter of the election is partially responsible for his decline in the polls, so the election has flopped," said Barbara O'Connor of the Center for the Study of Politics in Sacramento.
"They view him as a same-old, same-old politician," she said. "That is his worst nightmare."
But Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at Cal State Sacramento, said it will be tough for Schwarzenegger to put a good spin on the loss of his reform initiatives in November.
"If he actively campaigns for four measures, anything less than having three of four will be seen as a defeat," Hodson said.
"A major defeat would embolden the Democratic majority to oppose his initiatives and foster a belief among the voters that the great experiment of an action hero as governor has failed," he added. "But if, however, at least three or all four measures pass, the clock is returned to 2004, with the governor appearing all but invincible."
Four core measures on the ballot deal with government spending, political boundary redistricting, political use of union dues and teacher hiring and retention.
McCuan, the political scientist from Sonoma, sees talk of compromise on the deficit-plagued budget and the ballot measures as "hogwash."
"I see a minor deal, if any, but you better believe we are going to the ballot box," he said. "This summer is the budgetary Cold War before the nuclear option is unleashed in November. The administration is marshaling its forces before putting its message on California airwaves after Labor Day.
"They are letting the Democratic interest groups get in their shots throughout the early rounds, but the strategy is to hit back hard as the campaign and the public's attention is captured and shifted to the ballot-box budget battle in November."
McCuan said that if Schwarzenegger's initiatives are victorious in November, "it will cement his role as the most compelling politician in the free world, who does not have an army at his disposal."
If the election has a less-than-stellar outcome, though, "he'll come back with a budget in January and policies that reflect an emasculated politician," McCuan said. "He'll be Gray Davis with muscles."
Arnold is handling the situation exactly the way I want and this is the reason I voted for him.
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Arnold id handling the situation exctly the way I want and this is the reason I voted for him.
Actually, both Pete Wilson and Gray Davis's poll numbers were lower at this same stage, and both easily won reelection. Arnold's demise is Liberal wishful thinking.
If Arnold is not supported in these efforts he can walk away with a clean conscience and sit back and watch CA slide into the abyss.
Most if not all of these measures are going to pass. The Dems have zero viable candidates to run against him in the next election so he will be reelected by a landslide. At that point, the fun really begins. Count on major pension reform for loafing civil servants who couldn't find their butts with a magnifying glass. Also, count on the CA leg. being made into a part time body, which will greatly limit the damage they can inflict. Also look for many tax cuts and school choice initiatives. Its going to be very interesting for sure.
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