Expect the Democrats to pull a Bolton on any Conservative Supreme Court Nominee. They'll delay. They'll procrastinate. They'll get out the old playbook and pull a Bork. They'll force the Republicans to change the Senate rules to get a confirmation and kick their feet and throw a tantrum about how the Republicans have destroyed the Constitution.
It's a win-win for the Democrats. If they can delay and block a nomination, they retain marginal control of the SCOTUS. If they force the Republicans to change Senate rules, they win the propaganda war and will use this during the mid-term elections to their advantage.
The Democrats are absolutely ruthless. The Republicans act like they haven't figured out that they are in the majority.
I seriously don't think that the a filibuster buster will hurt the Republicans in '06. It might, in fact, save Santorum's butt. The purely smart political move, pollwise, for the Democrats would be to allow the Republicans their man for the USSC. But the Democrats are not interested in the trappings of office, but power itself. And Soros, et al have their sabers to the Democrats' backs.
Prediction (if Specter plays along with Bush): The Democrats will see that Graham and even their own Nelson do not share the ideology of Chafee and Snowe. They know that 50 votes would mean success for the GOP and they try to cover their asses by not filibustering.
If Specter refuses to support Bush's pick: The nomination proceeds from the Judiciary Committee without a recommendation, and the Democrats try to play the John Bolton strategy. Believing that the Bolton strategy buys them some political cover, they attempt a filibuster, which is ultimately defeated.