I place a lot of stock in the Kristol column for the simple reason that it was Kristol who first wrote that it would be J. O'Connon who would step down...not J. Rehnquist.
It seems that he has some of the best sources in journalism today. I don't believe that he is simply going out on a limb without sourcing.
If track records matter (and, they do), I'd bet that the President will nominate a solid conservative. His appellate nominations have been outstanding.
I agree with you 100%!