The PMI indicates that the manufacturing economy grew in June for the 25th consecutive month. The PMI for June registered 53.8 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points when compared to May's reading of 51.4 percent. This reverses a trend in which the rate of growth had slowed for six consecutive months. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 42.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The June PMI indicates that both the overall economy and the manufacturing sector are growing. The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through June (54.2 percent) corresponds to a 4.2 percent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) on an annual basis. In addition, if the PMI for June (53.8 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4 percent increase in GDP annually.
| Month | PMI | Month | PMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2005 | 53.8 | Dec 2004 | 57.3 | |
| May 2005 | 51.4 | Nov 2004 | 57.6 | |
| Apr 2005 | 53.3 | Oct 2004 | 57.5 | |
| Mar 2005 | 55.2 | Sep 2004 | 59.1 | |
| Feb 2005 | 55.3 | Aug 2004 | 59.6 | |
| Jan 2005 | 56.4 | Jul 2004 | 61.6 | |
| Average for 12 months – 56.5 High – 61.6 Low – 51.4 |
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I'm a wacko? At least I know the difference between 12 months and 6 months. You were only off by 100%. Compared to a lot of doom and gloomers, you're spot on. LOL!
July 2004: 61.6, then decline, decline, decline...through May 2005--with a break-even 57.5/57/6 in the 10&11/05.
Graph the damn numbers on a 100-point scale and see if the .1 difference actually shows up...