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If the "reporters" lied about their source and it turns out not to be in the administration or is already gone, they lose again.

Not necessarily. If the source is already gone, this could be a bad thing. Think about it. Hypothetically, if the source was let go because of this, it means someone else had knowledge of it.

Time reporter Matthew Cooper told prosecutors that he talked to Libby on July 12 and mentioned that he had heard that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA, a source knowledgeable about his testimony said,"Cooper testified that Libby said he had heard the same thing from the media".

My guess is it didn't come from anyone in the administration but was confirmed by the media for the media and again confirmed by omission from the administration to the media, if that makes sense. As for Novaks role, it sounds as though he took other "confirmations" and jumped the story basically leaving Cooper and Miller out on their own. Novak just had to tell the GJ that he got the "confirmation" from Cooper or Miller and that's the reason he's off the hook.
Now Cooper's notes will allege that he asked a ? administration official to confirm Plames identity and they did. After that Cooper will have to explain how it was confirmed and he will testify that Libby stated he heard that too from the media.
To boil it all down, it sounds as though the media got an inkling of something and played a good guessing game after that. No story after that!

Another guess. Miller and Cooper aren't in as much trouble about not revealing sources as they are with perjury or lying to a government official and this puts them in a box either which way they go. Miller is taking the easy way out by going with simple contempt but if Cooper testifies he goes down on contempt, perjury and/or lying to a government official, depending on his previous statements. Time has just stated that they will release his notes but that is no guarantee it discloses the "source" and one can't put notes under oath. Cooper, if he's smart, will take the contempt but file an appeal on other than "freedom of the press" grounds and request bail until the appeal could be heard.