Posted on 06/29/2005 8:28:16 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
Gov. Schwarzenegger's chokehold on apossible re-election bid has loosened significantly in recent months, with only 39 percent of the state's voters saying they would support him in the 2006 gubernatorial race, according to a poll released today.
The survey by the nonpartisan Field Institute also found that either of the GOP governor's Democratic challengers, state Treasurer Phil Angelides or state Controller Steve Westly, would narrowly beat Schwarzenegger if the general election were held today.
Angelides holds an early lead over the possible field of Democratic candidates, including filmmakers Rob Reiner and Warren Beatty, pollsters found.
Schwarzenegger, wildly popular with voters following his election in the 2003 recall, has seen his luster fade recently as his job-approval rating sagged.
Todd Harris, a political adviser to the governor, called the survey meaningless.
"I'm not exactly losing sleep over a poll that asked voters how they feel about a hypothetical ballot match-up that is 17 months and three statewide elections away," Harris said. Schwarzenegger has until next spring to declare whether he will seek re-election.
The results, combined with Monday's Field Poll in which 59 percent of Californians surveyed said the state is "seriously off on the wrong track," suggest voters may be growing frustrated with the governor, said Mark DiCamillo, director of The Field Institute.
"I think most of it is in reaction to the governor's fortunes and it's making Angelides and Westly look good by comparison," DiCamillo said of Schwarzenegger's decline.
Brian Brokaw, a spokesman for Angelides campaign, said the poll shows Californians want a change in leadership.
The Field Poll, produced for The Press -Enterprise and other California media subscribers, found that only 39 percent of the voters queried are inclined to re-elect Schwarzenegger, compared to 56 percent who felt that way in February.
In a near-turnaround, 57 percent of the voters surveyed last week said they do not support the governor's re-election, up 15 percent from February's poll.
Seventy-one percent of the state's Republicans said they are behind the GOP governor, down about 9 percent from February.
Independent voter Pamela Brennan of Highland in San Bernardino County, said she backs Schwarzenegger. But she disagreed with his call for a Nov. 8 special election where voters will consider three governor-backed initiatives to redraw legislative districts, raise teachers' tenure eligibility and cap government spending.
"I think he is aggressive and he is doing a fairly decent job," said Brennan, 51, who was among those polled.
Paul Van Nostran, a 21-year-old independent contractor in Perris in Riverside County, said Schwarzenegger's priorities are off.
"He's focused too much on thing that shouldn't take precedent over things...like low-income housing or health care for people who can't afford it and helping the lower class move forward," said Van Nostran, a Democrat who was also polled.
Val Nostran told pollsters that he plans to vote for Angelides although he admits to not knowing much about the state treasurer.
The poll's findings that Angelides and Westly would both narrowly beat Schwarzenegger represent a dramatic turnaround from February's poll that showed the governor would rout either challenger.
Shaun Bowler, a UC Riverside political science professor, said that with the gubernatorial election still more than a year away, the poll is not likely an accurate barometer. But it does show that voters may be tiring of the governor's tactic of turning to ballot measures when he fails to reach accords with the Democrat-controlled state legislature or the unions representing teachers, police, firefighters and nurses.
"This constant reliance on the initiative process is wearing a bit thin," Bowler said, adding that voters are saying " 'You've been there a couple of years. Isn't it about time you did something, Arnold?' "
The poll sampled 711 registered voters from June 13 through 19. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for the overall registered-voter groups. Findings of strictly Democratic primary-election voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
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Field poll
Voters inclination to re-elect Gov. Schwarzenegger
June 2005
39 percent inclined
57 percent not inclined
February 2005
56 percent inclined
42 percent not inclined
"I'm not exactly losing sleep over a poll that asked voters how they feel about a hypothetical ballot match-up that is 17 months and three statewide elections away," Harris said. Schwarzenegger has until next spring to declare whether he will seek re-election.
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And if he doesn't run, we have no primary due to the rule change by the CA GOP to give that united feeling that everyone is in lockstep with aRnie.
6/29/2005 #2163 - Sharp diminishment in voter inclination to re-elect Schwarzenegger. Angelides leads democratic primary. Both he and Westly narrowly lead the governor in early general election match-ups.
http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/
For the last two decades, polls have been clearly subtle tools of propaganda for.... Tah Dah!
Guess which party?
It takes a functional moron not to know how easily polls can be manipulated, or used as tools to "guide" the weak of mind.
Too bad the CA GOP doesn't understand that and work to have their own non-partisan polling entity like Field which for years has been exactly what you said, a tool.
So does the Gub run again or turn tail?
Hehehe, if anything, these same polls (or similar) have shown even lower numbers for State assembly and senate members.
He has also said , it isn't his job to grow the CA Republican Party .. whatever the heck that meant. ;-)
which begs the question, who does he really represent?
His hold on indies and any sane lefties is lost, now the real battle begins in the minds and hearts of voters.( those that have them anyway)
I wish I felt he had it in him to pull it off,, but FRankly,
we'll have to wait and see who shows up in November and who really cares what this state becomes..
It would certainly be novel for Arnold.
California lost its luster many years ago!
So, with all the questions, the only choices were Schwarzenegger, Angelides, Westly, Reiner, and Beatty? What the heck is this world coming to?
What the heck is this world coming to?
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Ask eoerge Soros. a more 'open society' some would say.
suicidal is more like it, imo.
George Soros. :-\
The CAGOP is certainly committing suicide. Without supporting a real primary, and given the lackluster performance, they're pretty much guaranteeing that a Dem will move into power. I'm guessing Westly is the fairhaired choice of the corrupt powers.
The CA GOP is dead, imo. Just take a look at the new millionaire movement that is trying to gain favor with Rove and the country clubbers.
So you like EBay Gray Lite and his chances, eh?
He's got big bucks, big ideas, big dreams,, big hair and a cutesy family,, we could do worse, and probably will. ;-)
Not too late for him to recover, but for the moment at least, nobody believes he will actually carry out the kind of bold and aggressive actions needed to put California back among the living.
"Not too late for him to recover, but for the moment at least, nobody believes he will actually carry out the kind of bold and aggressive actions needed to put California back among the living."
The path to his reelection and fixing California is simple: deputize the state police to ENFORCE immigration law, cut off services to illegals, PROSECUTE employers of illegals, and add state police near the border (even if it is partly symbolic.)
That plan would fix a lot of problems in California (overcrowded schools, closed emergency rooms, gangs, high taxes, etc), and put him on the conservative path to reelection.
Don't think Arnold has it in him.
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