The black stuff has world order over a barrel

Crude oil is at $60 a barrel and rising. British motorists are paying record prices on the forecourts. The £1 litre may not be that far away. Traders on commodity exchanges are warning that a cold winter in the northern hemisphere could see prices, already up 38% since the start of the year, rise a lot further.

Policymakers are clearly worried by the short-term picture. The G8 summit at Gleneagles next week will discuss the likely impact of high oil prices on the global economy and what the rich countries of the west ought to do in response. Every other surge in the price of oil in the past 30 years has been associated with a slowdown or full-scale recession in the world economy, and the fact that the increase seen since the start of 2003 has so far been shrugged off is no cause for complacency. Higher oil prices raise business costs and cut the real incomes of consumers; that means profit margins are shaved and consumer spending is blunted.

From this informative article:

Once peak oil has passed, the models suggest stocks will dwindle over a period of three decades at a time when, on current trends, demand for energy will be rising strongly. In 30 years, oil production could be down by three quarters.

This is a staggering figure. Two hundred and fifty years of industrialisation have been built on the availability of cheap fossil fuels, first coal, then oil and gas. It is not just our cars that depend on oil, it is our entire way of life. To take one example, the massive increase in agricultural productivity would not have been possible without oil-based fertilisers. Fossil fuels have made it possible to sustain a world population that has tripled since the 1920s. For the past century oil has been the lubricant for capitalism in a period which has seen the fastest growth, by far, in history.

A world without oil is bound to represent a massive economic, social and political shock. It's not hard to construct a dystopian vision. * * *

We may soon be waking up to lower growth, falling populations and a reduction in living standards. Indeed, without urgent policy action we are likely to get all three.

'Nuff said. Oh, well, not for me to worry.

How did we ever make it past the peak of work horses and wood fuel?

First, we transitioned to coal. Then, we transitioned to oil. Oil has a very high energy density, unlike wood.

Our problem is - with what do we replace oil? As the article points out, no easy replacement is available.

Our problem is - with what do we replace oil?

Fission, fusion, biomass, coal, new techniques in oil recovery, huge areas of exploration no longer off limits, or something entirely new.

As the article points out, no easy replacement is available.

I don't find it's arguments - concerning nuclear for example - convincing.

thanks very much for your reply..

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