Exit polls show Bulgarian Socialists ahead in vote

Reuters ^

[Alex Marko]

SOFIA (Reuters) - Bulgaria's opposition Socialists were ahead of the ruling centrists of the ex-king prime minister in Saturday's elections but may not have won enough votes to easily form a government, exit polls showed. A Gallup poll for Bulgaria's BTV television gave the ex-communists 32.2 percent of the vote versus 20.5 percent for Simeon Saxe-Coburg's ruling National Movement for Simeon II (NMS). Three other local polling agencies put the Socialists at 30.7-32.1 percent and the NMS at 19.5-21.1 percent.

If the polls are confirmed by official results, the Socialists could have difficulty forming a majority coalition government to press reforms necessary to take the Balkan country into the European Union in 2007.

Any protracted negotiations and uncertainty could deal a blow to investors betting on convergence with the euro zone and raise further impatience over poor living standards. Entry could be delayed by a year if reforms are not forthcoming.

Such a result would be an upset for the socialists, earlier opinion polls having given them some 40 percent of the vote and projected them in a strong position to form a government. The unexpectedly strong performance of a right-wing group may have eroded their support.

Despite overhauling Bulgaria's once crumbling economy and bringing it to the threshold of EU entry, Saxe-Coburg has lost favor with many Bulgarians over failure to deliver on brash promises to make them all wealthy within 800 days.

The Socialists, whose last term in power ended in 1997, have vowed to pursue responsible fiscal policies and redouble efforts to complete preparations for EU membership.

But the poll results suggest it may be hard for any party to immediately muster a majority with smaller groups.

The mostly ethnic-Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), power brokers in Bulgarian elections for over a decade, was seen supported by 10-11.9 percent, while the center-right Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) had 7.6-9 percent, polls showed.

The new nationalist Attack party was seen winning a surprise 7-7.9 percent of votes, easily over the threshold for entering parliament, garnering the protest vote in the absence of other extremists parties. Analysts say the Socialists are most likely to try to include the MRF in a government, but they may also invite the ex-king's party into a grand coalition to ease the passage of EU-required reforms.

Brussels has told Bulgaria it must speed up efforts, especially in revamping its judiciary, and fighting crime and corruption to avoid being held back by a year until 2008.

Although Saxe-Coburg's party secured fast economic growth, cut unemployment and brought Bulgaria into NATO and to the threshold of EU entry, his often aloof style and failure to deliver on pledges of quick wealth have hurt his popularity.

The Socialists, former communists whose last term in power ended in Bulgaria's disastrous 1996-1997 economic meltdown, have promised to push on with EU-required reforms, but analysts see their plans to hike spending as more risky for the economy.

First official results are expected at 1830 GMT.

[Righty_McRight]

"One step forward, two steps back..."

[Simmy2.5]

Saxe-Coburg has lost favor with many Bulgarians over failure to deliver on brash promises to make them all wealthy within 800 days.

That's a pretty stupid thing to promise. There is NO way you can make them ALL wealthy within 800 days. Much less 800 years.

Make them better off then what they were during communism yes, but all 'wealthy' (not exactly dealing with a concrete concept here)?