Terror Strategist Warns of Lengthy Iraqi Insurgency -Withdrawal?

CNSNews ^ | 6/24/05 | Monisha Bansal

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

With Democrats and even a few Republicans escalating their criticism of the Bush administration's handling of the war in Iraq, and with polls indicating shrinking public support, a top terrorism strategist Friday said the president should "stop talking down" to Congress and the American people.

Anthony Cordesman, a strategist with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, blamed the Bush administration for "major strategic mistakes in preparing to deal with Iraq once Saddam Hussein was overthrown.

Cordesman, who traveled to Iraq earlier this month, said he "did not see progress in aid. I did not see progress in economics. I did not see that the U.S. has a plan for using the aid they are providing."

On Tuesday night, President Bush will deliver a nationally televised speech on the situation in Iraq, at a time when at least one poll indicates nearly two-thirds of Americans feel it would be wise to bring the American troops home in the next year, rather than waiting for Iraq to stabilize.

The latest Harris Interactive survey showed that 63 percent of Americans want the troops brought home in the next year, up from only 47 percent who felt that way on Election Day last November.

Still, as he hosted Iraq's prime minister at the White House Friday, the president assured the new Iraqi leader that "there are not going to be any timetables," for the departure of U.S. troops from Iraq.

"There's no question there's an enemy that still wants to shake our will and get us to leave," the president told reporters. "They try to kill and they do kill innocent Iraqi people - women and children - because they know that the carnage that they reap will be on TV and they know that it bothers people to see death."

Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari added that "this is not the time to fall back."

Cordesman said the U.S. demonstrated "that it could fight the war it planned to fight -- a conventional regional war with remarkable efficiency, at low cost, and very quickly." But, he added, "the problem was that the U.S. chose a strategy, whose post-conflict goals were unrealistic and impossible to achieve and only planned for the war it wanted to fight and not for the 'peace' that was certain to follow."

The lack of adequate planning will result in an Iraqi insurgency that will last at least several more years, Cordesman said. Thousands of additional coalition forces and tens of thousands of Iraqis will die, he added. "Iraq is five to ten years of instability regardless of military outcome."

On Thursday White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan said President Bush agrees with the earlier remarks of Vice President Dick Cheney, who said the Iraqi insurgency will end "in the months immediately ahead."

And Friday, Bush said American forces retain a clear goal in Iraq: "a democratic and peaceful Iraq that represents all Iraqis.

"Our troops will continue to train Iraqi security forces so these forces can defend their country and to protect their people from terror. And as Iraqis become more capable in defending their nation, our troops will eventually return home with the honor they have earned." Bush said.

Bush added, "There aren't going to be any timetables" because that would be "conceding too much to the enemy."

Cordesman agreed with President Bush that it would be unwise to establish a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. "Anyone who calls for a timetable is part of the problem, not the solution," Cordesman said. "We cannot force them into readiness. An exit strategy, rather than a success strategy is not going to produce anything but serious issues."

[aspiring.hillbilly]

Yep, its the way Bush's go about things,,,, all things... his pa was no better--- he should of taken saddam out in in gulf war I and we would have this mess behind us; the sooner this incompetent political dynasty passes from the scene the better we off we all shall be...

[Condor51]

You gotta go to the source :-)

Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy

Expertise: Middle East military balance, weapons of mass destruction, national missile defense, critical infrastructure protection, homeland defense, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, U.S. and Middle East energy policy, Saudi Arabia

Anthony Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. He is also a national security analyst for ABC News. His analysis has been featured prominently during the Gulf War, Desert Fox, the conflict in Kosovo, the fighting in Afghanistan, and the Iraq War.

During his time at CSIS, he has been director of the Gulf Net Assessment Project, the Gulf in Transition Study, and principle investigator of the CSIS Homeland Defense Project. He has led studies on national missile defense, asymmetric warfare and weapons of mass destruction, and critical infrastructure protection. He directed the CSIS Middle East Net Assessment Project and acted as codirector of the CSIS Strategic Energy Initiative.

He is the author of a wide range of studies on U.S. security policy, energy policy, and Middle East policy, which can be downloaded from the Strategic Energy Initiative, Homeland Defense, Military Balance, and Gulf in Transition sections of the CSIS Web site (www.csis.org).

Professor Cordesman has formerly served as national security assistant to Senator John McCain of the Senate Armed Services Committee, as director of intelligence assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and as civilian assistant to the deputy secretary of defense.

He directed the analysis of the lessons of the October War for the secretary of defense in 1974, coordinating U.S. military, intelligence, and civilian analysis of the conflict, and he has served in numerous other government positions, including in the State Department and on NATO International Staff. He also served as director of policy and planning for resource applications in the Department of Energy, and he has had numerous foreign assignments, including posts in Lebanon, Egypt, and Iran, and worked extensively in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

Professor Cordesman is the author of more than 20 books, including a four-volume series on the lessons of modern war. His most recent books include: The Iraq War; Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century; The Lessons of Afghanistan; Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction; Cyberthreats, Information Warfare, and Critical Infrastructure Protection; Strategic Threats and National Missile Defenses; and The Lessons and Non-Lessons of the Air and Missile Campaign in Kosovo.

He has been awarded the Department of Defense Distinguished Service medal, is a former adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University, and has twice been a Wilson fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars at the Smithsonian.

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

These pinheads seem to have dug the hole so deep in almost any subject that responses must be either hypocritical or contradictory or both within.

[dixiechick2000]

Thank you for posting that bit from Austin Bay.

I think he's in a better position to judge.

[dixiechick2000]

Very well said.
Thank you.

[ARCADIA]

When does terrorism degrade from a domestic insurgency to mere hate crime?

[WOSG]

"Thank you. Haven't James Woolsey and Brent Scowcroft been against the Iraq war all along?"

Yes! We have a winner ... While, this is not a Moore-ish leftwing outfit, they are in the 'realist' camp of not wanting to overthrow baddies like Saddam, because you never know, next might be the Saudi royal family... Scowcroft and Kissinger were tight with Saudis, and this groups views tend to have an "Arabist" flair to them (ie, 'let them have their Arab dictatorships' policy, that Bush has rightly slammed as leading to the current dyfunction in the Arab world).

While Cordesman is pessimistic, you have to grant that it is better not to underestimate the difficulty of the task at hand, and the difficulty has been underestimated.

[dixiechick2000]

Cross linking to the full article.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1430438/posts

It is very good.
Thank you. ;o)

[Rooivalk]

If Bush erred at all in this war, it's in the P.R. department. They've allowed so many outright lies to stand, and others have been only weakly countered. They did well during the "shock and awe" phase--they need to keep up the pace. Even Fox, these days, concentrates on all the bad news. The victories over there are scarcely covered.

You are so on target with your statements. The terrorists in Iraq have been confined to the Sunni triangle and are afraid to operate in the south or the north. It is difficult to recall the last carbombing in Basra or up north in the Kurdish area

The President and the administration need to come out swinging on this and show how the leftists and defeatists are carrying water for the terrorists. All while real progress is being overlooked

I think that Karl Roves recent statements were a good start in the right direction

My local news here in Los Angeles (ABC 7) has taken to calling the latest terrorist attacks in Iraq, "Breaking News"

This is even when their are no Americans injured or killed! The defeatists and leftists here in this country are determined force fit Iraq into their vision of Vietnam

I for one do not plan to let them. I will write letters, put up "Support the Troops and the Mission" stickers and whatever it takes to make sure we win this fight

To forfeit this war because good people were too scared to speak up is not an option

[sauropod]

Cordesman has his head up his @$$!!!

[eatdust]

Uhhh...maybe because the post Saddam plan wasn't in place. Since there was not one.

[bnelson44]

Thank you, I have a lot of respect for Austin Bay.

[Condor51]

***If we fought WWII like this, the axis would be victorious.***

Think about that for a moment - as in most respects they did win.

Axis Member Italy - They fought a little, surrendered, then we showered them with money and rebuilt their country - No repercussions.

Japan - They raped Asia, systematically murdered Allied POW's, the 'average' Nip soldier made the Waffen SS look like choir boys, the war crime trials were a sham and joke. We dropped two bombs then showered them with money, rebuilt Japan from the ground up and gave them democracy and all our technology . In effect ZERO repercussions.

Germany - Well 'We' did fire bomb the hell out of the place killing million of innocent civilians because of who they voted for. But then we feel bad so after 'they' surrender we shower them with money, rebuild their country too from the ground up, 'gave them' Europe's best economy, and we turned them into the world's biggest pacifists. Except for losing half their country to the commies (thanks FDR you assh*le) and the civilians we killed murdered they did pretty good all things considered.

The BIG winner was the USSR. They gained land and satellite states while the Allies 'lost' their colonies world wide. (sorry Stalin was not an 'ally')

So did the Axis really "loose"?

But you're right, we can't fight a P.C. war and hope to win. In that respect Iraq is Vietnam deja vu with all the "Hearts and Minds" baloney. It wasn't until we learned to fight the VC way and countered with SF MIKE Forces, SEALS, MACV-SOG, Rangers, trained Sniper teams, etc, that things actually started to look favorable and 'even out' tactics wise - that is until the Democrats in Congress and 'Uncle Walter' surrendered.

[dixiechick2000]

You're very welcome, but
Racehorse is the one you
should thank.

I have a lot of respect
for AB, too.

[Racehorse]

It is very good.
Thank you. ;o)

You're quite welcome!

Downtown cranes sprout over city-block-sized construction projects . . . Horst told me that he and his Iraqi counterpart now have tea in a sidewalk cafe along the once-notorious boulevard.

Rather frustrating that this is imagery we never seem to see?  No wonder so many of the troops . . . and us . . . are ticked off at the MSM.

[aspiring.hillbilly]

The biggest sellout was the strident commie sympathizer fdr sending billions of war materials to uncle joe stalin and giving away eastern Europe to the commies.

[iconoclast]

Vice President Dick Cheney, who said the Iraqi insurgency will end "in the months immediately ahead."

Did he really say that? Wow. I hope they're not actually operating as if that's true..

Nah!

It's just one more example of this:
a top terrorism strategist Friday said the president should "stop talking down" to Congress and the American people.

[Avenger]

Vice President Dick Cheney, who said the Iraqi insurgency will end "in the months immediately ahead."

Did he really say that? Wow. I hope they're not actually operating as if that's true..

---

I think if things go as planned (i.e. the political process and the training of Iraqi forces), the terrorists in Iraq will no longer be a serious threat to the government of Iraq, and this shift could happen in a matter of 6 months. However, you can bet that there will continue to be fairly regular terrorists attacks in Iraq for many years to come.

[iconoclast]

they are in the 'realist' camp of not wanting to overthrow baddies like Saddam, because you never know, next might be the Saudi royal family.

they are in the 'realist' camp of not wanting to overthrow baddies like Saddam, because you never know, next might be the Saudi royal family:

A) whether the devil you know might be preferable to the one you DON'T know,
and
B) just what kind of can of worms you may be opening up!

PS Are you (snort) implying that the people you mention are bigger buddies of the Saudis than the Bushes?

[iconoclast]

I thought CNS was a conservative news site.

I believe the key word there is "news".

But you may be one of the many here who prefer to splash around in a baby pool of propaganda.