Posted on 06/25/2005 2:08:26 AM PDT by familyop
MOSCOW (RIA Novosti commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - Russia will not lose no matter who wins the second round of the presidential election in Iran.
It has a fair chance of preserving its priority standing in Iran's foreign policy under any president - Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, technocrat and pragmatist, or his rival, the ultraconservative Tehran Mayor Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who produced a furore with his surprise success at the election. This is the unanimous opinion of most Russian experts.
Unlike Washington, which said the election in Iran was undemocratic and would not create a legitimate power, Moscow regards the election as a crucial event in the history of Iran and has pledged to respect the choice of millions of Iranians.
Radjab Safarov, director of the Center for Modern Iran Studies, thinks this is not simply a diplomatic gesture to Tehran. The election campaign, he said, "has turned into a national referendum where the people expressed their support for the country's political system." He said it was notable that none of the observers reported falsification of voting results.
In his opinion, radical changes in Iran's foreign policy with regard to Russia are improbable no matter who comes to power, the pragmatic reformer Rafsanjani or his opponent, the conservative radical Nejad.
The main reason is that under Iran's constitution the president is not the head of state and hence not the last instance in decision-making. The strategy of Iran's foreign policy is approved by the unelected spiritual leader and the actual head of state, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Yet much will depend on the president, as Rafsanjani has proved once. During his previous presidency, Iran opted for liberal reforms and many Russians still remember that bilateral relations became lively and Russia got the contract for the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
Moscow should not be embarrassed by Rafsanjani's calls for normalizing relations with the U.S., as this would be a positive development for Moscow. The West will stop pressuring it to terminate nuclear cooperation with Iran. Described as a pragmatic politician, Rafsanjani will most probably welcome a broader Russian involvement in the Iranian projects.
Neither would Russia lose its standing in Iran if Nejad wins the election. Moreover, Safarov holds that Russia would get a carte blanche in oil, gas and, of course, nuclear projects. On the other hand, this may increase Western, including U.S., pressure on Russia.
But some Russian experts are dissatisfied with the current stage in Moscow-Tehran relations. Nina Mamedova, head of the Iranian sector at the Russian Institute of Oriental Studies, agrees that the victory of either candidate would not seriously influence bilateral relations. The trouble is not that Russia has serious rivals in Iran, she said, but that bilateral relations, contrary to numerous declarations, are far from impressive. Russia is not sufficiently active on the Iranian market. Tehran is waiting for a breakthrough in bilateral relations and links its hopes to the visit of President Putin.
Nuclear cooperation remains the priority sphere for Russia. The outcome of the presidential election will not affect the pace of the Iranian nuclear program. All political leaders of Iran support the plans of building a network of nuclear power stations. Tehran wants to develop nuclear power engineering so as to preserve its hydrocarbons reserves.
So far, Russia has no major rivals in this sphere, mostly thanks to the stand of the Tehran authorities. This stand with regard to Russia may change only for the better as a result of the election.
But is Russia, which has pledged to accept any winner, ready to advance its interests in Iran more energetically?
Wrong, try again, never will you find anything even close to that, as much as you might take a word or three out of context with your spiteful drivel added to them. Oh wait, I'm still waiting on the definitive proof that I am a 1. Stalinst supporter (go ahead post your little tripe again so I can easily disprove it and show you for what you are a 5th time, I love doing it, it's soooooo dang easy) and 2. an anti-semite. Oh wait, no proof? What else is new?
Not to mention you defend Russia's ally Iran and even defended Basayev's jihad against Georgian Christians in Abkhazia. You are the jihadist cheerleader, tovarisch.
Have your horns gronw in yet? You accuse me of being an ultraRussian nationalist in one lieing breath and a supporter of the biggest Jihadi and most wanted man in Russia in another. Even your lies aren't consistent. I defended the right of the Abhazian and S.Ossessian Christians to succeed from Georgia, the nation that was trying to exterminate them.
As for Iran, damn you couldn't find one post where I support the Mullahs, slanderer. I'm still waiting for my anti-semitism posts, where is your proof. Know this, never will I let you live that down. Everyone who doesn't know you nature, will.
I stand by my assertions. You are a compulsive liar, a Stalin apologist, Russian imperialist, and yes a Russian racial supremacist anti-semite! Anyone who wants to can read your posts and see this is true or read the posts of your previously banned alter ego RussianConservative Your lies will never go unchallenged here, comrade.
It's going to take a massive political blunder for us to encroach on Russia's sphere of influence which includes Iran. Whose blunder? There are many possibilities.
What are you babbling about? You can't even keep your lies straight. Russia slaughtered Abkhazian Christians? Are you totaly nuts? 90% of Abhazians have Russian citizenship and its Russian troops that keep the Georgians from trying to finish their earlier attempts.
You defended Basayev's bloody jihad when he was a Russian soldier, but that evil came back to bite Russia!
When exactly was Baseyov a Russian soldier? Was that before the ETs built the pyramids?
I stand by my assertions.
Yup and that's all you can do by your "assertions", because you can't ever prove a damn one of them. All you are capable of is lieing and slander against me and dozens of other Freepers.
You are a compulsive liar, a Stalin apologist, Russian imperialist, and yes a Russian racial supremacist anti-semite!
Prove it, still waiting. This is what, thread 12 or 13 you've repeated the same lies, never to produce. You'd make any democrap proud.
As for your RussianConservative crap you're getting just as tired with that as the rest of your accusations. Zero proof and lots of wasted bandwidth. Put up or shut up.
You spend so much time manufacturing totally made up lies about Russia's enemies that you don't even know the truth about the butcher of Beslan! He is a Russian-trained killer! He is their Frankenstein's monster!
Ok, I'll speak slowly for the challenged: Abhazians and S.Ossessian were being exterminated by the Georgians who in 1992 were out to Georgianize their nation, which was 40% minority. But you know this and are now trying to weasal your way out of another of a legion of screw ups. Haha.
Having agreed in a previous post that Abhazians were Christians, why exactly would the Islamics support them?
Then you wonder why the whole world considers Russia an aggressive criminal rogue nation
Really? Like which nations? Like the Bush Administration? So tell us how Bush is wrong and you are right. Or is Bush just lacking your wisdom, that is Bush, Cheney, Rice? Well, why haven't you joined a think tank or are not on Fox or running for president, since you have this great insite that our president and his advisors lack.
No I don't know any such thing. I certainly have no reason to believe your word for it!
The Chechens support the islamic minority in Abkhazia. That's why they went there at Russia's behest to slaughter the Christians.
President Bush is right when he says that Russia should not help Iran get nukes. Russia is wrong when she says she'll get away with it anyway.
He was a Soviet conscript. I know a hate filled entity like yourself couldn't tell the difference, why bother.
Put down the crack pipe.
President Bush is right when he says that Russia should not help Iran get nukes
Nice attempt to extricate your foot from the back of your throat. Sorry, but Bush also said he considered Russia a friend and had looked into Putin's eyes. Oh you remember that. Must have driven you nuts. So tell us how much it drove you nuts, how much it made you steam over what Bush said. Come on, let the hate out, you're good at it.
It was Russia for whom he took Georgian Christian heads in the early nineties.
The only hate here is coming from you, bigot! Hate, hate, hate, racist, hate. You're like a damned broken record. Keep playing the race card Reverend Al.
In 1992 the commanders of the Russian 58th army in the northern Caucasus had one name on their lips: Shamil Basayev. To them Basayev was the latest epiphany of the legendary Chechen fighter immortalised in the works of Lermontov and Tolstoy.In his late twenties then, Basayev was fighting to detach Abkhazia, a Muslim region, from Georgia, one of the 15 republics that had emerged from the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Within a year 250,000 ethnic Georgian Christians were driven out of Abkhazia. Moscow was pleased. The dismemberment of Georgia was part of the Kremlin's strategy of weakening the newly independent republics.
What the Russian generals did not know at the time was that, a year later, the same Basayev would turn his guns against them by triggering a secessionist war in Chechnya. Over the next decade Basayev emerged as Moscow's public enemy number one, now with a $10m (£5.5m) prize on his head. - LINK
Aw, look at who's talkin'--he who tried to feed us the story that the device found in the Nord-Ost incident was a 155 mm round. Bull...or you don't know your devices, self-described instructor.
I am saying that it's very doubtful. No 155 mm round traveled that far from where 155s are stored/laying. ...your way of blaming the USA or Europe for the Nord-Ost BS? I also doubt your credibility after your description of "expert" to describe yourself, not to mention your lack of knowledge on the general main purpose of SF.
Let's focus on your falsehood. You tell us how a 155 mm round got all the way to the Nord-Ost Theatre. The only such round that the Russians had was brand new and for sale but hadn't gone anywhere, yet (no way it went to Chechnya and back). The only likely way that such a round wouldn't been put in that theatre would be an intentional implication of a NATO country by officials there.
The only such round that would have been available in abundance (if any) to the Chechens (if they had such an artie unit in the Russian Army) would have been the 152 mm.
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