McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up (New Zogby Poll)

Zogby ^ | 6/23/05

[areafiftyone]

Arizona Senator John McCain would overwhelmingly defeat New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a theoretical 2008 presidential match-up, a new Zogby America poll reveals.

The survey also shows that in a re-match of the 2004 election, Americans would now vote in equal numbers for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush, while President Bush’s approval rating has plummeted to 44%—the lowest numbers of his presidency.  The poll also found fewer than two-in-five (39%) voters approve of President Bush’s handling of the Iraq war.

The Zogby America survey of 1000 likely voters, conducted from June 20 through 22, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points. 

The same survey finds Congress’ job rating even lower, with just one-in-four likely voters (26%) rating the legislature favorably—and just 2% saying it is doing an excellent job.

The survey finds that both senators far outdistance their nearest competition for their parties’ nominations—but in a head-to-head match-up, the Arizona Republican bests the New York Democrat by 19 points, leading her 54% to 35%.  McCain would also defeat Massachusetts Senator—and former Democratic presidential candidate—John Kerry by a full 20 points, 55% to 35%.

McCain has majority support in every single geographic region of the country.  But more telling may be the fact that, even in the states carried by Kerry in 2004, McCain comes out comfortably on top—leading Clinton by 49 to 38% and Kerry by 50% to 40%.  Among the states carried by President Bush, the margin is even wider, giving McCain a 58% to 33% lead over Clinton and 59% to 32% lead over Kerry.

McCain leads with most demographics, though Clinton would best him narrowly among Hispanic voters (45% to 38%) and would win African Americans by 80% to 19%.  But that 19% would be the highest vote tally for a Republican with African Americans in decades. McCain leads Clinton with every age group except voters under 30, where the two are in a dead heat.

President Bush’s Job Approval Plunges to Historic Lows

The drop in President Bush’s approval rating puts him at the lowest numbers since his presidency began.  The Zogby America survey has been conducted on a regular basis throughout Bush’s two terms.

	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor
6-22-05	44	15	29	56	22	34
5-25-05	46	18	28	53	23	30
4-18-05	46	19	27	53	23	30
2-25-05	47	21	26	53	22	31
2-14-05	50	24	26	50	18	32
1-21-05	49	21	28	51	22	29
11-16-04	51	23	28	49	18	31
9-20-04	47	18	29	52	20	32
6-05-04	46	19	27	55	22	33
1-20-04	49	19	30	50	27	23
9-25-03	50	22	28	50	23	27
6-10-03	58	27	31	41	22	19
9-25-02	64	26	38	36	21	15
6-14-02	70	33	37	30	20	10
1-7-02	80	45	35	19	15	4

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	15	17	14
Good	29	31	25
Positive	44	48	39
Fair	22	22	21
Poor	34	29	41
Negative	56	51	62
Not sure	0	1	0

Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall.  Just one month ago, Bush’s job performance was supported by a 51% majority in the Red States, but now has slumped to 48%.  And in the Blue States, the President has dropped one point from 40% in May to 39% in the latest poll.

Kerry, Bush Would Now Tie in Election

Vote Again for Bush	45
Vote Again for Kerry	43
Vote Again for Third Party	3
Switch to Kerry Vote	2
Switch to Bush Vote	0
Switch to Third Party Vote	2
Would Not Vote	2

The most significant development in the poll may be that Americans now say they would vote for Senator Kerry and President Bush in equal numbers if last November’s election were re-held.  The new poll finds 45% say they would vote for Bush and 45% say they would now vote for his vanquished 2004 opponent.  Although before rounding Bush holds a very slight lead, the two are, for the first time since the November election, back into a statistical dead heat.

The drop in Bush’s support comes against a backdrop of lost momentum in the Senate, where much of the President’s agenda—including the nomination of U.N. Ambassador-designate John Bolton—is stalled. 

President’s Job Approval in Negative Territory on Host of Issues

President’s Handling of Issue	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor	Not sure
War on Terrorism	49	20	29	50	24	26	1
War in Iraq	39	13	26	61	15	46	0
Taxes	36	13	23	62	28	34	2
Foreign Policy	36	10	26	61	26	35	3
Jobs and the economy	35	9	26	65	28	37	1
Education	33	7	26	64	34	30	3
Environment	30	6	24	66	29	37	5
Social Security and Medicare	27	7	20	69	23	46	4

President Bush has slipped into negative territory on his handling of a number of issues surrounding his presidency.  While the nation is split on his handling of the War on Terrorism, the president’s support has dropped into negative territory on a number of other issues, from his anemic numbers on the Iraq War to his dismal ratings on Social Security and Medicare—an area he began his second term vowing to reform.

Majority Now Says Nation on Wrong Track

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Right Track	43	48	35
Wrong Direction	53	48	60
Not sure	5	4	5

The number of Americans who now say the nation is on the wrong track continues to climb as well, with 53% now saying the nation is heading in the wrong direction.  Just one month ago, that number was at 50%.  Much of this increase comes from a shift among Americans who, in May, were undecided about the nation’s direction now saying the nation is on the wrong track.  While both Red Staters and Blue Staters are both more pessimistic than a month ago, the belief the country is heading in the wrong direction is particularly strong in the Blue States, where just one-in-three (35%) say the nation is on the right track.

Congress Rates Very Unfavorably

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	2	2	2
Good	24	28	19
Positive	26	30	20
Fair	47	47	47
Poor	24	22	26
Negative	71	69	73
Not sure	4	2	6

The poll finds Congress rated even less favorably than the President, with just one-in-four Americans holding a favorable impression of the co-equal branch of government’s job performance.  Seven-in-ten American voters, meanwhile, view Congress in negative terms, with half of all likely voters (47%) terming Congress’ job performance “fair.”  The disapproval of Congress crosses the Red-Blue divide, with voters in both areas holding a negative view of the legislature—though Red Staters are slightly more favorable to the Republican-controlled body. 

In a sign of voter dissatisfaction with Congress, a “generic ballot” question that asks voters which party’s candidate they would select for Congress finds the minority Democrats polling at 38% while the majority Republicans take 33%.  A full one-in-five (20%) say they are not sure or will not vote in the mid-term Congressional elections next fall.      

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1000 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from June 20 to 22, 2005. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[doug from upland]

I agree. I want Allen/Condi. But it sickens me to think people would allow Hillary to destroy our nation because they didn't get their way. I don't think McCain has a chance for the nomination, but he would get my vote if he is nominated.

[abigailsmybaby]

Maybe Republicans could pull their heads out of their asses and give us a real conservative worth voting for.

No can do? Then whatever happens is your fault...not the voters.

[Walkingfeather]

Wasnt it mccain that said Hilliary would make a great president just a few months ago.

[abigailsmybaby]

What would be the difference? None that I can see. McCain sides with socialists/marxists every chance he gets.

[Cyclops08]

hmmmm.
Who to root for?
Would there be any real difference?

Looks like I'm sitting out this sorry election. (of course this means taht McCain actually wins the GOP primaries...)

[doug from upland]

What would be the difference? None that I can see. McCain sides with socialists/marxists every chance he gets.
======================================================

Go ask Billy Dale what would be the difference. Ask Jim McDougal. Ask Vince Foster. As the Boy Scout honor guard whose flag was spit on. Ask Paul Frey, the FJB. Ask the airport guard who got run over by her limo. Ask Juanita Broaddrick. Ask Kathleen Willey. Ask those in the health care profession who were shut out of her secret task force. Ask the 900 people whose FBI files she had. Your comment is unbelievable.

[doug from upland]

He was caught on TV by a reporter asking the loaded question.

[GB]

Every chance he gets? How come he got a 75 in 2003 and a 72 in 2004 from the American Conservative Union, and still has an overall rating of 83? How come he got a 100 percent rating from the Eagle Forum in 2004 and a 100 percent rating from the Family Research Council in 2003? HOw come he got an 83 from the Christian Coalition in 2003? How come he got a big fat zero from Planned Parenthood and the National Abortion Rights League in each of the last five years? Those are some of the post-2000 numbers I mentioned in my previous post.

Are those liberal numbers? Are those numbers that are going to attract Democrats?

Again, I'd rather have somebody else ... more than anything, somebody younger who could serve two terms ... in 2008. But again, Hillary vs. McCain, absolutely no contest, I vote for McCain.

IMHO, everyone can disagree with me and flame away if you will, I'm donning my asbestos and Nomex, most of the crap McCain has been pulling in the last few years stems from a personal animus toward George W. Bush than any marked gravitation to the left politically, because again, the numbers don't show it. And there would be too much at stake ... possibly even the survival of this country as we know it ... if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, for me to sit at home and twiddle my thumbs just because the alternative didn't get along with the previous president and spent eight years in a snit with him.

[Walkingfeather]

John McCain is an idiot that will not make the first cut.

[abigailsmybaby]

Any proof of any of that? Until somebody can prove it, it's all just hearsay.

I hate Hillary too, but all my reasons are just hearsay because nobody that CAN has the balls. I'm only one vote. How do you think you're going to convince the rest of the voters when all you have is hearsay?

[pollywog]

I can not decide who would be worse.

Agreed......sigh.

[Dan from Michigan]

McCain? Not with my vote. Period.

[Dan from Michigan]

In some cases I'll hold my nose (Bush). In McCain's case, I'll be voting for either the Libertarian or Constitution Party. Maybe even the Democrat if it's a Zell Miller type.

[Dan from Michigan]

I'll even go so far to say that McCain isn't well liked in my county....which he almost WON in 2000.

[falpro]

...most of the crap McCain has been pulling in the last few years stems from a personal animus toward George W. Bush

But that's the rub...it's his lack of respect for W. He comes off as a MOLE. Met with Daschel early on, allowed Kerry to court him, flies to Bagdad with Hillary for a love-fest on MTP - on and on and on.

He's NOT popular with Republicans. Hillary wouldn't mind running against McCain. Even better, probably hopes he pulls a Perot and goes Indy. Thinks it will keep just enough Repub. voters home on election day.

Sorry, but IMO he's missing that likeability factor.

[budwiesest]

Proof that 'face-time' really works. Another bag of peanuts in McCains right cheek-pouch would balance it out for me.

Americans dig 'face-time' seeking politi-sluts. The bumpersticker "Kill your TV" is evermore applicable these days.

[Brian Allen]

<< McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up ... >>

And pigs would fly if they weighed in at two-hundred pounds lighter and had wings and Hell would FReeze if it was cold enough and I would have one more uncle if my aunt had cojones.

[hosepipe]

McLaim WILL be Hillarys Veep... RINOs love him..
Fasten seat belts.. make some popcorn.. but wait until 2007...

[oceanview]

you can choose Giuliani. For all the talk trashing him, he would be a better president then McCain, he is a more decisive and stronger leader, and he could pull the same moderate votes that McCain could pull in the general election.

Run MCCain, and Hillary still wins new york state. Run Rudy, and he wins NY and NJ - its very hard for the Dems to win enough electoral votes without those two states.