McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up (New Zogby Poll)

Zogby ^ | 6/23/05

[areafiftyone]

Arizona Senator John McCain would overwhelmingly defeat New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a theoretical 2008 presidential match-up, a new Zogby America poll reveals.

The survey also shows that in a re-match of the 2004 election, Americans would now vote in equal numbers for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush, while President Bush’s approval rating has plummeted to 44%—the lowest numbers of his presidency.  The poll also found fewer than two-in-five (39%) voters approve of President Bush’s handling of the Iraq war.

The Zogby America survey of 1000 likely voters, conducted from June 20 through 22, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points. 

The same survey finds Congress’ job rating even lower, with just one-in-four likely voters (26%) rating the legislature favorably—and just 2% saying it is doing an excellent job.

The survey finds that both senators far outdistance their nearest competition for their parties’ nominations—but in a head-to-head match-up, the Arizona Republican bests the New York Democrat by 19 points, leading her 54% to 35%.  McCain would also defeat Massachusetts Senator—and former Democratic presidential candidate—John Kerry by a full 20 points, 55% to 35%.

McCain has majority support in every single geographic region of the country.  But more telling may be the fact that, even in the states carried by Kerry in 2004, McCain comes out comfortably on top—leading Clinton by 49 to 38% and Kerry by 50% to 40%.  Among the states carried by President Bush, the margin is even wider, giving McCain a 58% to 33% lead over Clinton and 59% to 32% lead over Kerry.

McCain leads with most demographics, though Clinton would best him narrowly among Hispanic voters (45% to 38%) and would win African Americans by 80% to 19%.  But that 19% would be the highest vote tally for a Republican with African Americans in decades. McCain leads Clinton with every age group except voters under 30, where the two are in a dead heat.

President Bush’s Job Approval Plunges to Historic Lows

The drop in President Bush’s approval rating puts him at the lowest numbers since his presidency began.  The Zogby America survey has been conducted on a regular basis throughout Bush’s two terms.

	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor
6-22-05	44	15	29	56	22	34
5-25-05	46	18	28	53	23	30
4-18-05	46	19	27	53	23	30
2-25-05	47	21	26	53	22	31
2-14-05	50	24	26	50	18	32
1-21-05	49	21	28	51	22	29
11-16-04	51	23	28	49	18	31
9-20-04	47	18	29	52	20	32
6-05-04	46	19	27	55	22	33
1-20-04	49	19	30	50	27	23
9-25-03	50	22	28	50	23	27
6-10-03	58	27	31	41	22	19
9-25-02	64	26	38	36	21	15
6-14-02	70	33	37	30	20	10
1-7-02	80	45	35	19	15	4

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	15	17	14
Good	29	31	25
Positive	44	48	39
Fair	22	22	21
Poor	34	29	41
Negative	56	51	62
Not sure	0	1	0

Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall.  Just one month ago, Bush’s job performance was supported by a 51% majority in the Red States, but now has slumped to 48%.  And in the Blue States, the President has dropped one point from 40% in May to 39% in the latest poll.

Kerry, Bush Would Now Tie in Election

Vote Again for Bush	45
Vote Again for Kerry	43
Vote Again for Third Party	3
Switch to Kerry Vote	2
Switch to Bush Vote	0
Switch to Third Party Vote	2
Would Not Vote	2

The most significant development in the poll may be that Americans now say they would vote for Senator Kerry and President Bush in equal numbers if last November’s election were re-held.  The new poll finds 45% say they would vote for Bush and 45% say they would now vote for his vanquished 2004 opponent.  Although before rounding Bush holds a very slight lead, the two are, for the first time since the November election, back into a statistical dead heat.

The drop in Bush’s support comes against a backdrop of lost momentum in the Senate, where much of the President’s agenda—including the nomination of U.N. Ambassador-designate John Bolton—is stalled. 

President’s Job Approval in Negative Territory on Host of Issues

President’s Handling of Issue	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor	Not sure
War on Terrorism	49	20	29	50	24	26	1
War in Iraq	39	13	26	61	15	46	0
Taxes	36	13	23	62	28	34	2
Foreign Policy	36	10	26	61	26	35	3
Jobs and the economy	35	9	26	65	28	37	1
Education	33	7	26	64	34	30	3
Environment	30	6	24	66	29	37	5
Social Security and Medicare	27	7	20	69	23	46	4

President Bush has slipped into negative territory on his handling of a number of issues surrounding his presidency.  While the nation is split on his handling of the War on Terrorism, the president’s support has dropped into negative territory on a number of other issues, from his anemic numbers on the Iraq War to his dismal ratings on Social Security and Medicare—an area he began his second term vowing to reform.

Majority Now Says Nation on Wrong Track

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Right Track	43	48	35
Wrong Direction	53	48	60
Not sure	5	4	5

The number of Americans who now say the nation is on the wrong track continues to climb as well, with 53% now saying the nation is heading in the wrong direction.  Just one month ago, that number was at 50%.  Much of this increase comes from a shift among Americans who, in May, were undecided about the nation’s direction now saying the nation is on the wrong track.  While both Red Staters and Blue Staters are both more pessimistic than a month ago, the belief the country is heading in the wrong direction is particularly strong in the Blue States, where just one-in-three (35%) say the nation is on the right track.

Congress Rates Very Unfavorably

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	2	2	2
Good	24	28	19
Positive	26	30	20
Fair	47	47	47
Poor	24	22	26
Negative	71	69	73
Not sure	4	2	6

The poll finds Congress rated even less favorably than the President, with just one-in-four Americans holding a favorable impression of the co-equal branch of government’s job performance.  Seven-in-ten American voters, meanwhile, view Congress in negative terms, with half of all likely voters (47%) terming Congress’ job performance “fair.”  The disapproval of Congress crosses the Red-Blue divide, with voters in both areas holding a negative view of the legislature—though Red Staters are slightly more favorable to the Republican-controlled body. 

In a sign of voter dissatisfaction with Congress, a “generic ballot” question that asks voters which party’s candidate they would select for Congress finds the minority Democrats polling at 38% while the majority Republicans take 33%.  A full one-in-five (20%) say they are not sure or will not vote in the mid-term Congressional elections next fall.      

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1000 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from June 20 to 22, 2005. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[doug from upland]

It amazes me. I equate it to a vote for a block captain in a neighborhood watch program. A guy gets chosen whom some people don't like, so they are going to whine and no longer participate. They get some kind of sick satisfaction out of letting the other side win -- the terrorist street gang -- and their neighborhood is destroyed. Hey, if I can't get my way, let's just take the whole thing down. That will show them. They will learn from this lesson and listen to me next time.

[areafiftyone]

How old will McCain be in '08? He was born in 1936, and I'm horrible with math, but that would make him over 70

I hate to say this cause I love Reagan and I hate comparing ages, but Reagan was in his 70's as president. He won the presidency at the age of 69 and was president for two terms in his 70's.

[My2Cents]

Couple of thoughts --

Republicans need to find a way of turning success in the WOT to political advantage at home

It gets back to something I posted on another thread yesterday: The war in Iraq, as well as the WOT, are justified, but the Bush Administration has done a horrible job with the PR aspects of their policies. W was on a roll -- he literally soared to the heights of greatness -- immediately after 9/11, and into 2002, but IMHO, his rhetoric about the WOT hasn't changed in over two years, and his comments are sounding like a tired cliche, which is a horrible failure in leadership during a time of war. Whenever he's had the spotlight, he's pretty much dropped the ball (I'm thinking of the Russert "Face the Nation" interview in, I think it was, late 2003), and in the first debate with Kerry. I think Bush's winning margin in '04 was the fact that enough people understand the seriousness of the WOT, and recognized we needed to continue with Bush in office, in spite of his inability to articulate that need. Basically, Bush has performed miserably when it's come to defending Iraq policy and the WOT. People may disagree, but that's my opinion. I picked up Richard Miniter's "The Shadow War" when it came out, and while the information in it was rather sparse, it did a better job informing us of the scope and successes in the war on terror than the Administration has done. Most shocking was Miniter's comment that the US and its allies in the WOT (and he points out that US presence has been not simply in Afghanistan and Iraq the past three-plus years, but in about 70 countries total) thwart about one terrorist plot a day, on average. The American people are oblivious to this. While I suspect that not much is told of the details of the war on terror because of security reasons, and that most of our operations are covert, the Administration would do well to start making our successes and the seriousness of the continuing threat more public.

You see the skids being greased right now for Hillary! on that gambit.

And when you see self-identified conservatives (like on FR) start cozying up to the idea of actually voting for Hillary (either because of hatred of McCain, or because of her smoke and mirrors on an issue like illegal immigration), you know it's going to be an uphill battle. As much as I don't like McCain, the idea of another four years of a Clinton (or worse, a Rodham) in the Oval Office makes me sick to my stomach.

[HitmanLV]

It's infantile, self-defeating, and self-marginalizing.

My conservative pedigree is well documented, but there are times that I wish we could broaden the tent enough (and stay on message enough) to really marginalize 'all or nothing' and 'one issue' types.

It really is what they deserve.

[My2Cents]

Reagan was unique in many ways, including his physical condition. While he was in his 70s during virutally all of his presidency, his doctors said he had the physical condition of a man 25 years younger than his age. McCain is not in good health, and frankly, in '08 he will be two years older than Reagan was when he was first elected. I think this works against McCain more than anything else.

[areafiftyone]

Maybe. I just hate the age factor - Not that I like McCain. I think this country as a whole is obsessed with age.

[doug from upland]

If he makes it then, he better name Condi VP. :)

[TheForceOfOne]

McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Democratic primary Match-up.

Republican primary yet to be decided.

[Always Right]

Let's be honest here....The last poll among Republicans that I saw had Rudy Guiliani and McCain right at the top of Republicans' preferences.

That's purely on name-recognition. The Republicans who are most active will do whatever it takes to get someone besides Rudy or McCain nominated. Polls right now mean nothing.

[My2Cents]

Any true majority in politics has to be a broad tent. Anyone interested in achieving their political objectives must learn to compromise at times. "Compromise" is not a dirty word in politics...it's the essence of politics. And knowing when to compromise, and when not to, is what defines political genius. (I know you know this; I'm writing for the benefit of those who don't seem to get it.) The ivory tower snipers who sit in the clouds and plink at their natural allies who are on the ground engaged in the trench warfare of the realistic political world, are worse than useless.

Someone wrote earlier that everyone has their "boiling point," and I can accept that. We all need to know what our limits are, what we are willing to give on, and not violate those limits. But there are some who want "my way, or the highway" 100% of the time, and these people, as far as I'm concerned, are not real players in our political contests.

[My2Cents]

I agree with you, but with McCain,it's not simply a question of his age, but of his health. If he stays healthy over the next three years, and shows a lot of energy on the campaign trail, health and age will likely not be an issue.

[HitmanLV]

I agree.

[My2Cents]

Yeah, that's my thought too.

[Matchett-PI]

I put Zogby in the same class as the ones talked about here.

[savedbygrace]

NO.

[Betaille]

"I'm telling you McCain would attract a significant portion of the liberal vote."

Absolutely not! I don't know a single liberal that would vote for McCain over Hillary. They may like McCain more than they do most Republicans, but not enough to vote for him over a Democrat. He will on the other hand lose alot of conservatives both Republican and Democrat. They won't necessarily vote for Hillary, but alot of them will probably not vote or vote 3rd party. Also some conservative Democrats will vote for Hillary becuase McCain doesn't give them enough reason to overlook party loyalty. If McCain were president in 2002 I don't think I would have started voting Republican.

[Colonel_Flagg]

Amen, Corin. And I'm not even from Virginia!

[NeoCaveman]

I think McCain --- being from AZ --- and having half a brain when it comes to national security --- would build a wall along our Southern border (as is seriously being considered).

Have you ever heard of the McCain/Kennedy immigration reform?

[areafiftyone]

True. Well I don't know about his wife either. Didn't she have a small stroke recently?

[applpie]

the INDEPENDENT and always accurate Mr. Zogby.....trying to line up a wolf (democrat) in sheeps (republican) clothing. This republican for McCain---NEVER.