Apples and pears -- I was talking Supreme Court nominations, where Shrub has already won me my money by walking past Thomas and Scalia to choose between Gonzalez (who's the favorite among the cognoscenti, apparently) and a short list of appeals-court judges.
So Bush has already signaled that conservatives and originalists can forget about it -- he's going to the Rotary Club for his SCOTUS nominees.
First of all you didn't specify SCOTUS. And second of all the offer is still on the table. A gentlemens bet will be fine.