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Chinese SSBN launched ... or not.
Bill Gertz reports that China has launched its new Type 094 SSBN. The story, however, doesn’t make much sense. Gertz claims that the “new Type 094 was spotted by U.S. intelligence agencies at the Huludao shipyard [...], is in the early stages of being outfitted and is not yet equipped with new JL-2 submarine-launched nuclear missiles.”

If the SSBN remains in the shipyard awaiting oufitting, has it been launched? Maybe he was in a rush, because he also mischaracterizes a public DIA report:

A Pentagon report on Chinese military power made public in May stated that the new Chinese missile submarine would not be deployed until around 2010.

That isn’t what the report, Chinese Military Power says. Here is the relevant passage:

China also is developing two follow-on extended-range versions of the DF-31: a solid-propellant, mobile ICBM and a solid-propellant submarine- launched ballistic missile, the JL-2, which will be deployed on a new ballistic missile submarine by decade’s end.[Emphasis mine]

The missile (not the submarine) will be be deployed by (as in “not after”) 2010. Chinese Military Power doesn’t have an estimate about the submarine. In 2002 Congressional testimony, DIA Director Thomas Wilson said the SSBN and JL-2 would “likely will be developed and tested later this decade.” That statement is consistent with the submarine being under some stage of construction now.

The story, ostensibly about the SSBN, devotes roughly one-third of the words to the JL-2 missile:

Gertz reports “U.S. intelligence officials said the Chinese suffered a setback in their JL-2 missile program when a test flight of the JL-2 missile failed over the summer.” Chinese sources of uncertain repute tell ArmsControlWonk that the JL-2 program is under-funded.
Gertz cites purloined intelligence documents about the DF-31/JL-2 program—except on the question of how many warheads the DF-31 can carry. On that question, he cites super-hack Rick Fisher (who says multiple) instead of the CIA (which says one). That’s called cherry picking.
Gertz claims China’s “current ballistic missile submarine known as the Xia, which is equipped with medium-range missiles.” At least two intelligence estimtes DIA’s Chinese Military Power and the National Air Intelligence Center’s Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat claim the missiles are not deployed aboard the submarine.
Late, Late Update: A colleague helpfully points out:

... the use of the term “launch,” in naval contexts, doesn’t imply anything like what we would call operational capability. At launch, most ships are just shells waiting for their full load of electronics, weapons and (not infrequently) propulsion systems. There’s a bit of an element of scaremongering in Gertz’s statement: “launch” is essentially a meaningless term, if we don’t know how long it takes to fit out a ship. It’s just a phase of construction.

· Posted by Jeffrey Lewis · 3 December 04

This was an article I saw which cast some doubt as to when the Type 94 submarine will be operational. The underlying thesis I have is; one it isn't easy to develop a state of the art navy, secondly we won't allow the Chinese to eclipse us. Naval procurements can change and naval vessels have a much longer shelf life.
Do you really think defense planners will be like the tortoise and the hare, with the defense planners being the hare sleeping away as tortoise, the Chinese, catches up.

Chinese sources of uncertain repute tell ArmsControlWonk that the JL-2 program is under-funded.

ArmsControlWonk is an left wing left-over from the old nuclear freeze movement. He opposed Reagan's build-up. And GWB's termination of the ABM treaty. Nothing said by them should be treated with anything but the gravest of suspicions. They have been targetting Gertz with their venom for some time now. And ineffectually. Because he got it right. The sub was launched. The missile tubes "outfitting" likely are being added secondarily, after checking out the rest of the systems...which probably are a major "prerequisite" step. Whereas ArmsControlWonk is getting "Chinese sources" to set the record straight? I don't think so. A lefty State Dept. type will be told exactly what they want to hear.... remember Grima Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings? Our Fifth Column is just like that. Only they wear suits and ties.

And don't think the U.S. DOD is immune. Xlinton's stooges are still in there. Meanwhile GWB's appointments...even to the DOD... languish as the RATs filibuster. One of Xlinton's agents in place, Thomas Barnett, at the USN War College, only just got fired this December. He preached that as a matter of economics China would NEVER interfere with the U.S., and that our Navy was invincible against there's. He had no naval technical knowledge whatsoever, yet he pompously boasted along those line. Now the Deputy Sec. of Defense is saying what Rumsfeld is reluctant to admit: Our Navy is threatened by Chinese developments. How many more of Xlinton's agents are fighting that conclusion with foot-dragging and revisionism, and are still perpetuating ideologically-blindered error and apologias for China?