Replies

"...Most of the Gulf countries have become very dependent on their oil income, which provides almost all their foreign currency..."

You really don't see the difference between "western" societies and Saudis ? In the "west" people are already crying that oil is too expensive... Tell the Saudis that Allah want them to be poor, they would reply: Great ! So I want to be even poorer !

"Is this a joke? We went in to protect them from Saddam in 1992."

In 92 ? In early 90's SA was much weaker, while Iraq was much stronger, but I'm not talking about conventional war. How many American soldiers died during conventional part of war in Iraq ? 150 ? During next two years of occupation already over 1500, even although most of Iraqis didn't support Saddam.
In conventional war against SA loses wouldn't probably be much higher than in Iraq, but occupation would cost countless thousands of American soldiers' lives. Saudi fanatics would attack in human waves smiling that soon they will see Allah. Any US President wouldn't survive it, that's why It won't happen.

"How do you know since they are not free to say?"

There are serious internal problems in SA. Sauds are losing popularity, because... they are too much progressive.

In addition to what Grzegorz said I would add that I don't understand how SA's oil production costs are higher than non OPEC producers in that the SA wells have been there forever, the oil is shallow and the gathering systems are already in place. Also, unless they have been multiplying like rabbits I don't see how their standard of living went down so drastically. SA has been taking in even more oil revenue as world demand increases. Your scenario makes no sense to me.

I meant the same as Grzegorz about invading SA. To defeat them militarily would be a snap but occupying that area would be almost impossible without killing them all, which is why I said we wouldn't invade them. Now under the hypothetical of China's involvement in that area, they would have no such compunction.

I know the folks at the Cato Institute are smarter than I am and have lots of resources but I don't understand or agree with their assessment of the SA.

"You really don't see the difference between "western" societies and Saudis ? In the "west" people are already crying that oil is too expensive... Tell the Saudis that Allah want them to be poor, they would reply: Great ! So I want to be even poorer !"

and

"There are serious internal problems in SA. Sauds are losing popularity, because... they are too much progressive."

So this business about women driving and complaints about how costly it is to hire a driver don't exist?

And if that were so where are the Saudi Jihadists coming from? Where did Bin Laden come from? Not so easy to placate I’m thinking. In fact the Saudis rule by providing prosperity and stability. Without political input, without freedom, and with cuts in life style, what exactly will keep the regime in power? The ones who want to overthrow the Saudi Kingdom are already dissatisfied. Cutting income will further threaten the ruling regime’s stability by those lookinh for slow change via reform.

As I see it there are the Jihadist, there are the reformists, and there's the Saudi Regime which stands for the status quo. The first two stand for change - Jihadists violent radical; reformists slower peaceful dhange. In your analysis all that exists is the regime and their followers.

You seem to be advocating a realist policy of maintaining the status quo even though the facts on the ground show that the situation there is explosive in the Jihadists direction. In the other direction the reformists are willing to support a regime that is making changes. In which direction should the US try to push the regime?

This is where the US petrodollars count.

As to taking over, that is last resort talk.

“In conventional war against SA…”

What is a “conventional war?” Non-nuclear obviously yes.

I don’t think Iraq was a “conventional war.” Great pains were taken to prevent casualties. In March of 2004 when we should have tightened the screws and cleaned out Fallujah we deferred to world opinion. Wars are not successfully fought and won by referendum. They are not won by half measures.

And while 1700 American lives are a tragedy, they are a small number to prevent the US economy from coming to a halt. That was what you predicted when you said we would all be riding bicycles. If that were to happen, many divisions you see now in the US would disappear. As you say, “In the "west" people are already crying that oil is too expensive...” There would be great unity to preserve our way of life.