Replies

Total nonsense. The players that move currency markets are hardly going to throw away their money for a silly reason like anti-Americanism, which is little more than demagoguery for the common dolt anywhere that it matters.

One irony worth noting is that the Europeans actually want a weaker euro to help their exports, so I don't know what kind of satisfaction you would get out of it, since it's a safe guess your comments are themselves based on anti-Europeanism.

More importantly, the Bush administration has given no sign that they want a dollar much stronger than it is now, and I can't see much reason why they would. The types of policies that would bring it about are not attractive in the current political landscape. If anything, what they want is a significantly weaker dollar relative to China. By the way, guess what this would require? You're right - Chinese diversification out of dollar assets. And guess what the prime target of such diversification would be? Bingo. Euro assets.

Furthermore, the factors that led to the dollar's decline - which are the deficits and relative interest rates - give no indication of changing anytime soon. There's a currency battle taking place alright, and it is between US and EU attempts to weaken their currencies, which the US is winning quite spectacularly thus far - the recent trivial correction notwithstanding.

And yes, you are clueless so far as this goes. I hope you don't have any actual money riding on it..

And yes, you are clueless so far as this goes. I hope you don't have any actual money riding on it..

If I had money riding on it, I would have been rich by now. When everyone was down on the Dollar and Soros and BUffett were heavily betting against the dollar, this is what I said (BTW, the Euro has fallen from $1.35 to $1.20 since):

When rich guys' superstitions pose a public threat(Gates & Buffett talk down the dollar at Davos)

Soros of course is singing the same toon. However, the US leads Europe in productivity, economic growth, lower tax burden, and most other economic indicators, and Europe is also burdened with worse aging population then we have. There is no way in heck I would be betting on the Euro longterm over the dollar.

4 posted on 02/22/2005 4:24:14 PM EST by Always Right

Warren Buffett sees no way but down for US dollar

I believe Warren is dead wrong here. The US still has the strongest economy by far in the entire world and the best currency. What is gonna beat it out, the Euro? I think not. The US economy will grow its way out of debt like it did after Reagan. We have always had trade deficits and the dollar always remained strong.

3 posted on 01/19/2005 8:54:56 PM EST by Always Right

I am doing just fine in other areas, but I would have made a killing betting on the dollar. My money is tied up in business or I would have.

Furthermore, the factors that led to the dollar's decline - which are the deficits and relative interest rates - give no indication of changing anytime soon.

The Fed has raised rated numerous times this year, so that has changed. The US has always had Trade deficits and spending deficits, so crying wolf about those is pretty dumb. The US is more capable than anybody of growing out of debt. With Europe aging population, they are in worse shape then we are long term. I wish Europe the best, but I just think they are headed towards a socialistic hellhole.