Posted on 06/17/2005 10:49:36 PM PDT by calcowgirl
SAN FRANCISCO - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger pulled his "Year of Reform" special election from his populist playbook, predicting that California voters will support his agenda because they want change in the way state government operates.
Yet several of the measures on the Nov. 8 ballot, including two of Schwarzenegger's, have that "been there, done that" feeling. The election lineup includes at least three initiatives that are similar to ones California voters have rejected in the past, suggesting the governor could have a difficult selling job in the months ahead.
In elections dating to the 1970s, voters have rejected variations of initiatives intended to redraw legislative districts, implement spending caps and lessen the influence of public employee unions.
"Government reform, regardless of who is sponsoring it, is very hard to explain," said Dan Schnur, a GOP strategist and former aide to former Gov. Pete Wilson, who tried and failed to implement some initiatives similar to those on the November ballot. "Over the years, the opponents of all these measures have been able to overload the electorate into voting no."
Schwarzenegger's supporters say the difference this year is the governor himself. They're relying on his star power and considerable persuasive powers to market the special election initiatives, no matter how similar ones have fared in the past.
They also want to tie their ballot agenda with the message of the 2003 recall election that propelled Schwarzengger to office. The Republican governor will try to use his salesmanship skills to convince voters that his agenda is linked to the populist anger that removed former Gov. Gray Davis part way through his second term.
"Arnold Schwarzenegger was sent to Sacramento to reform it, so the reform message is already squarely embedded in the minds of California voters," said Schwarzenegger campaign strategist Todd Harris. "The narrative's been written, so when the governor goes to the public and says 'these are the reforms we need,' the public will understand that."
Schwarzenegger has called a November special election for voters to consider three of his proposals. He wants to place a cap on state spending, change the way legislative districts are drawn and make public school teachers work five years instead of two for tenure.
Several other initiatives also will be on the ballot, including one that would require parents to be notified before minors could get an abortion and competing measures addressing prescription drug costs.
Among the most contentious is one that would require public employee unions to get permission from members before using their dues for political purposes. Schwarzenegger has not taken a stand on the so-called "paycheck protection" initiative, but it is supported by people close to him.
Wilson placed a similar measure on the ballot in 1998. The resounding defeat of Proposition 226 boosted the political clout of organized labor in California. That helped Democrats, the main beneficiary of union campaign contributions, consolidate their power for years to come.
Other lessons from California's political history are not on Schwarzenegger's side.
Voters have rejected four separate redistricting initiatives since 1982, including a plan similar to Schwarzenegger's that would give a panel of retired judges the power to draw legislative district boundaries.
Even Schwarzenegger's role model - the actor-turned-GOP governor Ronald Reagan - was unable to persuade voters to pass a major government reform initiative. In 1973, he called a special election for Proposition 1, a landmark measure to cut income taxes and establish strict controls on state spending. Voters rejected Proposition 1 amid fierce opposition from Democrats and unions, handing Reagan the biggest defeat of his governorship.
Reagan biographer Lou Cannon said Schwarzenegger's initiatives are vulnerable - not because similar attempts at government reform have been tried before but because they are being pushed in what he considers an absence of a real effort to govern.
"For Reagan, Proposition 1 was a bridge too far, but he had essentially already accomplished much of what he wanted to do, while this governor certainly has not," Cannon said. "This guy is trying to substitute initiatives for the entire legislative process, but he hasn't solved anything that I can see."
Schwarzenegger threatened to call a special election in January when he used his State of the State address to promote his agenda for reshaping state government. He repeatedly has indicated that he would like to negotiate a legislative compromise, but Democratic lawmakers say he's made no serious efforts to do so.
Despite Schwarzenegger's proven salesmanship on the campaign trail, Democrats and public employee unions have the power of a well-established roadmap as they try to defeat his initiatives and the union dues measure. Their strategy likely will be to denounce the measures as a Republican power grab.
"The playbook is well-established," said Phil Trounstine, a former communications director for Democratic Gov. Gray Davis. "But the political conditions today are different from when these were run up the flagpole before, so it's a question of which side can get their message out and make it compelling."
Yes. It's hard to explain. But Californians need this in a bad way. Arnold can never make changes with the current legislature. This is extremely smart on his part. Let the chips fall where they may. My opinion of him has gone up dramatically. Not your typical politician. Wanting to effect great change takes political courage.
"Come with me if you want to live."
--Terminator 2
"Government reform, regardless of who is sponsoring it, is very hard to explain," said Dan Schnur, a GOP strategist and former aide to former Gov. Pete Wilson, who tried and failed to implement some initiatives similar to those on the November ballot. "Over the years, the opponents of all these measures have been able to overload the electorate into voting no."
And shut up Wilson's rep! Why give copy to the MSM? Do you want Arnold to fail because your guy did? It seems so. Because if he succeeds with the same ideas that you lost on it was obviously the messenger not the message. Go away and shut up!
"Great Scott!"
Times have changed since 1973 - CA is not the Golden State anymore. It is flat broke and ripe for reform.
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
Yep. Get ready for the deluge of propaganda from the CTA and other unions. It's going to be worse than in an election year!
I agree.
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