Boeing fighting back at Air Show (new version of 747 counter a380)

With fighter jets and executive planes buzzing around the giant Airbus A380 at the Paris Air Show, like flies and midges around a shire horse on a humid summer's day, it was the giant's dignified, slow ascent that made the greatest impression.

As the world's largest passenger plane took to the air at the Paris Air Show on Monday, onlookers at its competitor Boeing's chalets on the side of the runway were awestruck.

Boeing is entering the air show with tremendous momentum Boeing spokesman Tod Hullin

"It's a great aircraft," said one Boeing executive, with others nodding in agreement.

But great engineering does not equate great economics, and this is why the US aerospace giant has so far failed to develop further its 747 Jumbo jet to meet the challenge from this European superjumbo.

Boeing has consistently questioned Airbus' ability to make money from the A380, insisting that the market for giant planes is limited to a maximum 400 aircraft.

Yet, with an anticipated 4.8% annual rise in air travel that is expected to send demand for commercial planes soaring to $2,100bn over the next 20 years, it seems Boeing is hedging its bets.

On Tuesday, Boeing International vice president Rinaldo Petrignani said: "Boeing will launch a new version of the 747 to counter the A380. Boeing has decided on the relaunch, with a larger version."

So these days, despite all the publicity being directed at the big bird, there is a real sense of renewed confidence in the Boeing camp.

Boeing 787 Dreamliner Boeing says it has many orders for the new 787 Dreamliner "Boeing is entering the air show with tremendous momentum," says spokesman Tod Hullin.

"If Boeing does not build a plane the size of the A380 then US airports..."

In the same article, Boeing said that they agreed the Airbus A380 is an impressive piece of engineering, but disagreed with Airbus on the market for a super carrier of over a 400 person capacity.

I think it would benefit Boeing to undercut the A380 with a 747 advanced, plus I love seeing new aircraft come to the market. But, if it doesn't make business sense, Boeing can't do it because they can't afford a flop. Airbus on the other hand is funded by government, so they shift the cost of a failure to the taxpayers of the EU. Not fair, yet it's the world we live in.

Holtz
JeffersonRepublic.com

Boeing has already offered a new 747 to counter the 380 years ago... no takers...

But those versions had a totally new wing and a very expensive redesign of all the systems on board like a new fly by wire control system. The 747 Advanced is a much more modest project that would transplant technologies developed for the 777 and 787 into the 747 along with some modifications to the wings to improve aerodynamics. The 747 Advanced would use more efficient engines derived from the engines developed for the 787 program. The development program for the 747 Advanced should be somewhere in the range of $1-2 billion while the 747-500X and 747-600X programs together were estimated to cost at least $7-8 billion back in the mid '90s.

Airbus has already spent about $16 billion on the A380 and will spend even more getting the weight down. It was not optimized for its initial 555 seat 800 model but was optimized for the 800 seat 900 model. This made the A380-800 model about 300,000 pounds heavier than the existing 747-400ER. If Boeing stretches the 747 to give it 450 seats, it will kill any attempt by Airbus to develop a 475 seat 700 model, because it would be much heavier and have higher seat model costs. Boeing thinks it can not only build the 747 Advanced with much lower development costs than Airbus can build a plane in the 400-500 passenger market, but that they can beat the seat mile costs of the A380-800 and have lower fuel consumption per seat. Boeing will own the market niche below the capacity of the A380-800, because the A340 can't be stretched any more since it has already reached the 80 meter maximum length. The A380-700 would be much heavier and have much higher seat mile costs than the 747 Advanced which will be half way in capacity between the 360 seat 777-300ER or A340-600 and the 555 seat A380-800.

"If Boeing stretches the 747 to give it 450 seats, it will kill any attempt by Airbus to develop a 475 seat 700 model, because it would be much heavier and have higher seat model costs."

I wonder what the effect would be on the market? Some of the carriers in the Mid-East buy Airbus planes because their governments have deals with the EU. But, I would bet that a 747 advance would take a bite out of the Asian markets and maybe even steal some of the option orders away from the A380.

Holtz
JeffersonRepublic.com

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