[Cicero]

The Euro has decoupled from other currencies, and is in a tailspin. There are some interesting charts here:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan061305.html

[SAJ]

EUR rates to be pretty ugly for some time, as I've remarked here on several occasions. From late March onward, I've sold a fair number of EC calls (CME-IMM), month on month, and have put a fair amount in pocket by doing so.

Trading forex is highly influenced by mob psychology, though; most extended currency moves overshoot by 20% or so, even more when a panic component is thrown in (think MXN, 1997, or RUR, August 1998, to mention a couple of recent examples).

Long term -- say a decade or so -- EUR is toast, absolutely insupportable as a currency, until and unless the Maastricht agreement is rewritten top to bottom.

Will this occur? I've no view...but if you hold a gun to my head, I'd say that I doubt such renegotiation of the agreement will, or even could possibly, occur. The political class in the original signatory nations (pls note that UK and the 'Eastern' European nations are not part of this group) will never permit a renegotiation, even unto EUR's collapse.

They ''know best'', dontchasee?

In your honour, Cicero:

Quo usque tandem abutere, EMU, patientia nostra?