Your line of reasoning concerning "provoking" the Confederates at Sumter seems pretty close to some of the illogical BS we hear from the latter day Copperheads saying that turning down the AC at Gitmo is making the Islamonazis "really - really" mad at us.
I grew up on the Gulf Coast without air conditioning. Ah, those were the days.
I have posted on these threads before that I thought the Davis administration was snookered into firing on the fort. It would have been better if they had simply let Lincoln try to collect revenue on imports to the Confederacy.
They also made an error by stopping food supplies to the fort such as the beef and cabbages mentioned in the April 5th letter. I think this was done in response to the alarming army and navy activity in the North and suggested by the Southern Commissioner in Washington. The food supplies were cut off on April 7.
I believe what Lincoln did was indeed a provocation, an intentional one. The Confederates had said in effect, cross this line, and we'll knock your block off. Lincoln crossed the line.
From Lincoln to Fox on May 1, 1861 (posted long ago by nolu chan, Link):
You and I both anticipated that the cause of the country would be advanced by making the attempt to provision Fort Sumter even if it should fail, and it is no small consolation now to feel that our anticipation is justified by the result.