Then you’ve been wrong for a while. China has recently tripled their military capabilities and gone from 1% to 3% of what they need to take Taiwan. They don’t have a person in uniform with the military experience of the average USMC corporal. China is way more dependent on the US/Japan/Taiwan than we are on them, and their oil lifeline is vulnerable.
"China is way more dependent on the US/Japan/Taiwan than we are on them, and their oil lifeline is vulnerable."
I disagree. Have you been reading about the active hate campaign in China directed towards the Japanese? It is more or less officially endorsed. The Japanese are beefing up their defenses because of this hate campaign. This is in additon to the sabre rattling going on about Taiwan.
China's army is not well equipped or well trained at this date. But, they are building, and they have 3 BILLION people. The Chinese could put together an army of staggering size. The ability to tolerate losses would somewhat offset training. Also, the Chinese are not stupid, don't underestimate them. It's not like they can't or won't learn.
I'm not well versed on China's refinery capacity or their oil reserves. But, Saudi is building refineries since the US can't, (thank you EPA). I don't believe the Arabs would have a problem selling oil at a deep discount to a country that was in conflict with the "Great Satan" (US).