Soggy Arlene Expected To Make Landfall This Afternoon

Tampa Tribune/TBO.com ^ | Jun 11, 2005 | NEIL JOHNSON

[libtoken]

Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 14


Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on June 11, 2005


...Center of Arlene moves inland just west of Pensacola Florida...

at 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...all hurricane watches and warnings and all
coastal tropical storm warnings are discontinued...except for a
portion of the coast from the Alabama/Mississippi border eastward
to Panama City Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect
only from the Alabama/Mississippi border eastward to Panama City.
The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the large center of circulation of Tropical
Storm Arlene was located inland near latitude 30.7 north...
longitude 87.4 west...or about 20 miles northwest of Pensacola
Florida.

Arlene is moving toward the north near 15 mph. This motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 hours...bringing the center
of Arlene farther inland.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph...with higher
gusts...confined to the southeast of the center and over water.
Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles to the
southeast of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb...29.26 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...continues
east of where the center has made landfall. Surge and waves should
gradually decrease during the next few hours. Coastal water levels
are beginning to decrease to the west of where the center has made
landfall.
Arlene is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4
inches primarily to the north and just to the west of the storm
track...from the lower Mississippi Valley northward into parts of
eastern Indiana and western Ohio over the next 36 hours. Isolated
maximum amounts of up to 6 inches are possible in this area.
Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...30.7 N... 87.4 W. Movement
toward...north near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 991 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb

[onyx]

How ya doing?

[stm]

I had to drill so I was about 50 miles from home on Saturday. We came through fine, just got a lot of rain. Never even lost power. I am not sure about my friends at the beaches yet though.

[blueberry12]

THIS WAS JUST A TROPICAL STORM. It was just a slowly swirling bunch of clouds and some fine rain. I don't know why the media made such a huge issue out of this summer storm. They shut down Pensacola Airport even though we didn't have any high winds. People acted like it's going to be a serious storm, and look, it didn't do any damage! The wind blew off some small branches from the trees. That's all. I don't understand why everbody is focusing on this tropical storm as if it were some kind of terrible beast...

Two or three years ago, a tropical storm came, and just like now, the eye of the storm went through Pensacola. You know what we did? We went to ride our bikes on the beach. And it was such a beautiful weather! It was slightly raining and the wind was blowing calmly. It was perfect weather! This tropical storm, Arlene was no different.

[Theophilus]

Tropical cyclones are not just a coastal event and heavy rains could occur well inland and long after the center crosses the coast.

Heh, just hit us in KY. Don't get to say that very often!

[Kretek]

We're supposed to get Arlene's remains today in Michigan.

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION... REMNANTS OF ARLENE... CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS OF 08Z... THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SW LOWER MI ALONG THE I-69/M59 CORRIDORS. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL DEFORMATION DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HAVE HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGE. THIS BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SET UP A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE... THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR FROM SAGINAW TO ANN ARBOR. BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES... A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS.