Posted on 06/10/2005 9:19:59 PM PDT by AVNevis
...ARLENE SLOWS A LITTLE AS IT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...ALONG WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEAST...THE APPALACHIANS...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.1 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
A live thread at time of landfall could be valuable. But, IMHO, you jumped the gun a little since Arlene is predicted to make landfall sometime Sat afternoon.
My son just arrived back at Eglin AFB (near Destin) earlier this week after a year in Korea.
Welcome home to Florida, son!
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM UNTIL 800 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN CONFLUENCE BAND IN SE QUADRANT OF T.S ARLENE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALONG THE W COAST OF FL OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW INDICATED IN LATEST RAOB/VWP DATA.
I'm riding it out in Hattiesburg, Miss...
My only brother lives in Mobile, AL. One of his daughters and her family live there too. His other daughter and her family live in New Orleans. I'll be waiting this one out, praying for all in it's path.
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