Is Lebanon Hopelessly Divided?

www.netwmd.com ^ | June 8, 2005 | Andrew L. Jaffee

[forty_years]

Is Lebanon condemned to a balkanized future? After the excitement of the country’s “red and white revolution,” which led to the ouster of its Syrian occupiers (tormentors), things are not looking very rosy – that is, if you measure success by voter turnout in the most recent rounds of parliamentary elections. Hopefully, there is a brighter future for Cedar Land.

What a wondrous sight it was when, on March 14, one million Lebanese swamped Beirut to show their support for a country free of Syrian and Hezbollah terrorist control. This show of peaceful strength by far surpassed the pro-Syrian demonstrations by Hezbollah terrorists and their supporters on March 8th and 9th. The pro-democracy demonstrators seem to have won, as the last of the Syrian troops to occupy Lebanon left on April 27. But since that momentous day, mixed signals have emanated from Lebanon.

The Syrian/Hezbollah axis of evil bared its teeth on June 2nd by blowing up journalist Samir Qasir, a columnist for Lebanon’s al-Nahar newspaper, known for his anti-Syrian stance. Syrian troops may be gone, but obviously they and their proxies are still active in Lebanon.

In late May, an anti-Syrian coalition took all 19 seats in Beirut in regional parliamentary elections. But turnout was a measly 27% -- and that was in an anti-Syrian stronghold. According to BBC, turnout

…was lower than in the last elections - when Syrian troops were still around and Syrian influence was still strong.

Just last Sunday, Hezbollah terrorist candidates swept all parliamentary seats in south Lebanon with a voter turnout of 45%. So we see a division between central and south Lebanon already.

Three regions have yet to vote:

Mount Lebanon (35 seats) and Bekaa Valley (23 seats) on 12 June and North Lebanon (28 seats) on 19 June.

It will be interesting – riveting – to see what Lebanon’s parliament looks like when all the votes are counted. One can only wonder: Will this new, democratically elected parliament be viable, or will Lebanon once again revert to a sectarian mess?

Lebanese election laws mandate that the country’s government be divvied up along sectarian lines:

Parliament is elected on a sectarian basis, to maintain a balance between Christian and Muslim communities.

The 128 seats are divided equally among Muslims and Christians. These seats are sub-divided among the sects. The number of seats each sect has in a region depends on the sectarian make-up of the population.

The five regions are further divided into 14 electoral districts. These in turn comprise 27 constituencies with between one and 10 seats, allocated on a sectarian basis. …

SEATS BY SECT - MUSLIMS
- Sunnis - 27
- Shia - 27
- Druze - 8
- Alawite - 2
- Total - 64

SEATS BY SECT - CHRISTIANS
- Maronites - 34
- Greek Orthodox - 14
- Greek Catholic - 8
- Armenian Orthodox - 5
- Armenian Catholic - 1
- Protestants - 1
- "Minorities" - 1
- Total - 64

Maybe this seems “fair” intellectually, but in reality the Lebanese system emphasizes identity politics too much. If Lebanon is to be a true democracy, its people should be picking candidates based on their platforms/agendas rather than their religious/ethnic background. It almost seems that Lebanon is predestined for balkanization – again.

On the other hand, the process of throwing the Syrians out has been relatively peaceful, especially when compared to the awful days of the country’s 15-year civil war. In many of the anti-Syrian demonstrations held in Beirut, Christians and Muslims stood shoulder-to-shoulder. Maybe the Lebanese can coexist, even with a government divided along religious and ethnic lines. We’ll see.

The biggest loser in Cedar Land’s red and white revolution by far has been Syria. To Arab/Muslim hardliners, its pullout from Lebanon can only be seen as caving in to the demands of the Christian/Israeli/U.S. “great Satan” (Crusaders?).

Yesterday, Syria’s Vice-President, Abdul Halim Khaddam, “described as a veteran hardliner and architect of Syria's influence over Lebanon,” resigned his position and left the ruling Baath party. In other words, he is a token fall-guy for Syria’s defeat in Lebanon.

Also yesterday, about 200 Syrian dissidents openly demanded democratic reforms, the release of political prisoners, and the return of expatriates (true patriots).

And Monday, some of Syria’s 2 million Kurds rioted in protest of the murder of a prominent religious leader, Sheikh Muhammad Mashuq al-Khaznawi. According to Amnesty International, Syrian Military Intelligence operatives tortured the Sheikh to death.

And then add to this complex jumble the minority rule of Bashar Assad, son of the infamous Syrian dictator Hafez el Assad:

He was neither Muslim nor Christian, but rather belonged to a specifically Syrian fusion of medieval Islamic and Far Eastern belief, called the Alawite sect. And the Muslims persecuted the Alawites horribly during the Dark Ages of Western civilization. The Alawites comprise about 12% of the entire Syrian population, according to the last official census taken seven years ago.

The Alawites seized control in Syria in 1963, and Assad himself assumed supreme command in 1970. And just imagine the thirst for vengeance vis-à-vis the Muslim majority. When he came to power he basically cleaned out the entire state apparatus and filled all key positions with his families and cronies. It is no accident that the top level in the Syrian army is virtually all Alawite.

Things do not look good for Syria’s dictators, but they will not go down without a fight. There is no question that their days are numbered, though. At least Lebanon is off to a democratic start, albeit a sectarian one. As always, my faith and my money is on the people who believe in democracy.

Long live Cedar Land. Pray for a democratic Syria.

http://netwmd.com/articles/article1033.html

[ellery]

bttt

[Patrick_k]

"The Syrian/Hezbollah axis of evil bared its teeth on June 2nd by blowing up journalist Samir Qasir, a columnist for Lebanon’s al-Nahar newspaper, known for his anti-Syrian stance"

Is that why the wife of Mr. Kassir chose to go to french courts (he holds a French citizenship)? while the head of the Justice Department in Lebanon is held by a pro-Hariri, anti-Syrian judge. Something stinks here and it is not a fish.

[Patrick_k]

"The 128 seats are divided equally among Muslims and Christians. These seats are sub-divided among the sects. The number of seats each sect has in a region depends on the sectarian make-up of the population."

The maronite Patriarch complained recently that only 15 of the 64 christian elected representatives are elected by christians, the others are imposed by the moslem electorate through judicious gerrymandered constituencies.
This is called democracy.