It appears that the track forecast has shifted eastward - looks Biloxi-ish to me.
Posted on 06/08/2005 3:59:21 PM PDT by Lonely Bull
Got to laugh to keep from crying. hehe!
Likely just a coincidence...this morning was following a big truck loaded with plywood. Eerie.
The bay does seem to draw storms in, doesn't it,blam?
We spent Ivan in northern Mobile county. Lots of wind, no real damage. The coastline always gets the worst of any storm. Facing the water is not a good place to be during a hurricane.
I will say that the roads were cleared quickly in Alabama,our drive back was trouble free.
...Most of the weather associated with Arlene already affecting Cuba...squalls gradually spreading northward...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for western Cuba from Pinar del Rio to the city of Havana and Havana provinces...including the Isle of Youth.
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located near latitude 20.2 north...longitude 84.2 west or about 115 miles... 180 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Arlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. On this track...the center of Arlene will cross near or over western Cuba tonight or early Friday. However...most of the weather is currently arriving well in advance of the center. A gradual increase in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts mainly to the north and east of the center. Some modest strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km to the north and east of the center.
Minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane was 1001 mb...29.56 inches.
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...is spreading across the Cayman Islands...as well as central and western Cuba and into extreme southern Florida...especially the Keys. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible mainly north and east of the track over the next 24 hours...with maximum amounts of up to 15 inches possible in the higher terrain of Cuba. General 3 to 5 inch amounts will possible over the Florida Keys.
Some coastal flooding is possible on the southern coast of western Cuba.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...20.2 N... 84.2 W. Movement toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Avila/Knabb
It's like everything else on the "news" - hyper-sensationalized. Do a Google search for the phrase "Doppler of Death"; I recall that as part of the title of a humorous (but not very exaggerated) article about overdone weather coverage.
Just heard from my daughter on Grand Cayman Island. Her new roof is leaking and the roads are flooded. She's guessing they got about 10 inches of rain.
She's feeling so down and out. Like "what the hell is going to happen next?"
Don't ask.
Thanks, believe it or not, I'm not paying attention, LOL.
Been really busy today and completely forgot to check sites until I saw Clive's thread with a forecast map.
Still looks like it's headed for MS or LA, but way too early to predict.
I posted a historical map on Clive's thread, interesting thing is there just aren't many hurricanes that started at that position in June. The ones that are on the historical map date to early 1900s or late 1800s.
There's a sentence in bold for your viewing pleasure...
:o)
...Poorly organized Arlene affecting western Cuba with heavy rainfall and gusty winds...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for western Cuba from Pinar del Rio to the city of Havana and Havana provinces...including the Isle of Youth.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located near latitude 20.4 north...longitude 84.2 west or about 110 miles... 175 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Arlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. On this track...the center of Arlene should cross near or over western Cuba tonight or early Friday. However...heavy rain squalls are already moving onshore well in advance of the center. A gradual increase in forward speed accompanied by a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts mainly to the north and east of the center. Some modest strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km to the north and east of the center.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane was 1001 mb...29.56 inches.
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by brief gusty winds...will gradually spread across the western and central Cuba... and into extreme southern Florida...especially the Florida Keys. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible mainly north and east of the track over the next 24 hours...with maximum amounts of up to 15 inches possible in the higher terrain of Cuba. General 3 to 5 inch amounts will possible over the Florida Keys.
Some coastal flooding is possible on the southern coast of western Cuba.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...20.4 N... 84.2 W. Movement toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
I thought of you immediately when I heard she was going to get hit again.
Bummer about the new roof leaking. Shoddy work after big storm events is legendary, even here in the Midwest.
I guess because there's so many roofs to repair or replace, the work is hurried? Oh well, she still has only one of her three bathrooms rebuilt and her kitchen is not yet functional.
Thanks. In the words of Scarlett O'Hara, "I'll think about it tomorrow."
Seriously, I plan on heading to Albertson's early tomorrow to finish stocking up on water, they're having a sale on the individual bottles which is what I like to buy.
Seriously, this storm is trying to blow apart tonight. If it picks up speed tomorrow, we may not even get as much rain as we have gotten the past two days...maybe...
I'll keep my fingers crossed (toes too)!
...Arlene spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds across western Cuba...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for western Cuba from Pinar del Rio to the city of Havana and Havana provinces...including the Isle of Youth.
A tropical storm watch will likely be required Friday morning for portions of the north central U.S. Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located near latitude 20.8 north... longitude 84.3 west or about 75 miles... 120 km... south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Arlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. On this track...the center of Arlene should cross near or over western Cuba early Friday. A gradual increase in forward speed accompanied by a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts mainly to the north and east of the center. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...mainly after the center moves north of Cuba and over the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles ...185 km to the north and east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by brief gusty winds...will continue to spread across western and central Cuba...and into extreme southern Florida...especially the Florida Keys. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible during the next 24 hours across much of western and central Cuba...with isolated amounts up to 15 inches in the higher terrain of Cuba. General 3 to 5 inch amounts will be possible across the Florida Keys over the next 24 hours.
Some coastal flooding is possible on the southern coast of western Cuba.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...20.8 N... 84.3 W. Movement toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
It appears that the track forecast has shifted eastward - looks Biloxi-ish to me.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.