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I'm from Tampa, Florida to answer your first question. Secondly, assertions that Rudy would steer the GOP into a direction of his choosing are not realistic. Rudy does not have the outright power in the GOP to do that. What rudy does bring to the table is crossover votes that no other GOP member could pull off.

You are wrong about your scenerio 1. I do believe a conservative(anyone really) would beat Hillary. I just do not believe a "heartland-type" conservative like Pence or Tancredo would beat a moderate democratic candidate. I have made that clear.

Hillary cannot win the presidency. She has never polled over 42% in her/bill's political life. The only reason she would win a primary is from the anti-bush, ultra-liberal voters that polorized the the DNC. We(GOP voters) are dangerously close to reliving a 92 election flop where a 3rd party hurt Bush 41 and let Clinton in office. To me, this is possibly the worse scenerio possible. (1)

Buchanan killed Bush 41's re-election and now motivated buchananite types in the GOP will choose a candidate that is just not electable in a national election. The GOP now is doing EXACTLY what the DNC did in 04.

(1) here are polls that show hillary's poor performance and justify my statments about her.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. May 20-22, 2005. N=453 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 5.

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"If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for president in 2008, how likely would you be to vote for her: very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?" Very likely 28% Not at all Likely 40%

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm

If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?" N=352 Republicans and Republican leaners who are registered to vote,?

Rudy Giuliani 25%
John McCain 21%
Jeb Bush 7%

"Would you like Hillary Rodham Clinton to run for president in 2008, or not?"
Would: 43% Would Not 50%

Would you like Rudolph Giuliani to run for president in 2008, or not?"

Would 45% Would Not 41%
*Quinnipiac University Poll.

Ummmnnnhhh..Alex: did you ever hear of George Allen?

Tancredo's going nowhere, period. He's a one-issue candidate and MAY take Western primaries. Noplace else.

HRC's unpopularity is significant--but besides that, the last US Senator to win the Presidency was JFK--bought and paid for, fair and square. You'd have to go back another several elections to find another US Senator who became Pres.

Rudy has exactly one feather: he did a good job with NYC in the clean-up mode after 9/11. (And before 9/11.) Aside from LEO and anti-terrorism credits, Rudy has nothing in his bag.

I'm from Tampa, Florida to answer your first question.

Florida is filled with transplanted New Yorkers, so that might make Rudy seem a little more popular than he is nationwide.

Rudy does not have the outright power in the GOP to do that.

Rudy names cabinet members, appoints all judges, sets the tone on national tv pretty much at will, forces Republicans who may not be too hot on his stands to change their tune or at least quiet down in order to not be conflicting with the party president/leader. The Republican Party under Ford was much different than under Reagan. What's more, getting 60 Senators will mean nothing if they are Lincoln Chafee types. All we need is 51 NON-RINO Senators.

What rudy does bring to the table is crossover votes that no other GOP member could pull off.

I don't discount the Hildebeast because it is never wise to discount the powers of a vampire. In '94, Clinton looked like dead meat. In '96 he won in a cakewalk. But, if not the beast, whom? What Democrat would not be beaten by Gov/Sen George Allen? If you want crazy crossover appeal, Rice would make a lot more sense than Giuliani. That would wreak havoc with the Dems! Regarding crossover votes, Reagan in his loss to Ford in '76 gathered much of his strength in crossover primary states (e.g. Indiana). Winning appeal as a crossover conservative. The true "crossover" voters are Reagan Democrats.

I lived most of my life in Connecticut, and kept up on Rudy, and certainly rooted for him to dispatch Dinkins. I listened to WABC radio and read the New York Post. I know Giuliani's act, and it can play (when all is well)in New York, Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, and maybe Pennsylvania and California and Florida. Those are big states. But he won't win them all, and he will make the kind of gaffes that will make Dean look like the epitome of discipline. (Well, maybe not that much, but his judgement is AWFUL!) The fact remains, he has won nothing but a municipality. Even wiothout the cancer, his other gaffes would have forced him out of the '00 race in NY. It was that bad.

And of course, the starting gate is Iowa and New Hampshire. I don't see him doing well in either.

I just do not believe a "heartland-type" conservative like Pence or Tancredo would beat a moderate democratic candidate.

It doesn't have to be either. It could be George Allen. Allen is hardly radioactive.

(1)Buchanan killed Bush 41's re-election and now motivated buchananite types in the GOP will choose a candidate that is just not electable in a national election.

Bush killed Bush 41's chance for re-election by violating the no-new-taxes pledge, accomodating the moderates and showing himself soft, running an AWFUL campaign, and by misplaying Perot. Bush should have bailed out after his poor showing in New Hampshire and gotten a Jack Kemp or similar to take the spot.

If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?" N=352 Republicans and Republican leaners who are registered to vote,? Rudy Giuliani 25% John McCain 21% Jeb Bush 7%

The fact that barely half could bring themselves to pick ANY of the three shows that to be a bad or premature question. Jeb is out, not because of politics, but because 20 years of Bushes at pres or veep is more than enough. Giuliani and McCain have been turncoats regularly in endorsements, and that alone will alienate much of the party faithful. I know the beast has very high negatives, but they are ruthless, willing to cheat and manipulative to get what they want.