All eyes are on race for governor

MACKINAC ISLAND - If there were an overriding theme to this year's Detroit Regional Chamber Mackinac Policy Conference, it was that both the state and Detroit face crisis situations.

Political and business leaders heard repeatedly that bold thinking, more aggressive marketing and less partisan political stalemates are needed if the state is to right its rapidly sinking ship.

And while politically, the Detroit mayoral race figured largest at the 25th annual conference, next year's gubernatorial race gained noteworthy attention at the event.

Ending months of speculation, west Michigan businessman and GOP donor Dick DeVos used the conference to reveal his intentions to join the race. He is yet to make a formal announcement, however.

DeVos' announcement brings to three the number of Republicans lining up to challenge Gov. Jennifer Granholm. In addition to DeVos, state Sen. Nancy Cassis of Novi and state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk of Portage are running.

Issues-wise, the three will press the need for change at a time when Michigan leads the nation in unemployment and is losing jobs and business investment.

With the Democratic governor's plans to float a $2 billion job-creation bond and overhaul the state's Single Business Tax in limbo in a Republican-controlled Legislature, Granholm could be vulnerable. Recent polling data from EPIC/MRA show that 62 percent of residents think the state is headed in the wrong direction. Republicans point out the same poll shows that her solid re-election numbers among voters were just 26 percent.

DeVos, president of private investment firm, the Winquest Group, is one of the largest Republican contributors in the nation. He is already seen as the front-runner in the Republican primary and is expected to have available a massive campaign financing war chest.

The 49-year-old husband of former Michigan GOP Chairwoman Betsy DeVos and former vice president of Amway Corp. said he plans to use the upcoming months to hammer out his campaign message. Look for him to define his political style in terms of being a business-savvy politician in the mold of former Gov. George Romney.

"That's what I've done for my career - create jobs, build business, build enterprise and create value inside of the community here in Michigan," DeVos said during an interview on the porch of the Grand Hotel.

DeVos' only experience in public office includes serving for two years on the state Board of Education during the early 1990s. He was also behind a 2000 ballot initiative that sought to make available tax money for private school students. The measure was soundly defeated by voters, but he said he remains committed to providing education opportunities to all students.

Lansing political pollster Ed Sarpolus said DeVos' deep pockets should propel him through the GOP primary, but his conservative stances on issues such as vouchers and abortion could prove problematic.

"The key thing is he has to learn from President Bush," Sarpolus said. "If you run from the right, especially in Oakland County, it doesn't mean they're going to vote for you just because you're Republican."

Once considered solid Republican turf, Oakland County voted for Granholm in 2002 and for Democrats in the last three presidential elections. DeVos said economic issues will prove "galvanizing" for Oakland voters.

"Oakland County understands economic growth," DeVos said. "They understand its importance. Not just for the economy but because of how important it is for our families, how important it is for our children."

While DeVos is the apparent front-runner, the other two candidates said they remain unbowed.

"I think Mr. DeVos and Betsy, his wife, have contributed greatly to the Republican Party, and I respect that," said Cassis, 61. "But I also respect choice."

Cassis, the chairwoman of the Senate Finance Committee sites as her strengths her backgrounds in education and finance and the fact she is a female candidate from Oakland County.

"I'm concerned. We need a new course; we need a new direction; we need new leadership," she said.

Hoogendyk, a second-term lawmaker attending his first Chamber conference on the island, said he's already been campaigning for four months and has visited half of Michigan's 83 counties.

"There is no question (DeVos') financial resources have given him a tremendous advantage," said Hoogendyk, 49. "But if you want to get elected, you've got to ask for the vote. And you've got to work getting to know people and telling them what your vision is."

Hoogendyk, the son of Dutch immigrants, has a sales and marketing background and lived for five years in Lathrup Village. He said he's most concerned about the economy and education.

"I had a lot of opportunities as a young man and did quite well for myself," he said. "And today I see a lot of those opportunities slipping away here in Michigan."

Granholm mostly declined comment on the race, saying she's focused primarily on creating jobs. "The state has a CEO and has this CEO for the next year and a half until the people decide something else," she said.

"The key thing is he has to learn from President Bush," Sarpolus said.

Bush lost Oakland twice.

First off, Oakland County is not a Republican County, and hasn't been solidly republican since 90. It went went Republican one time at the top of the ticket since 1994. It went for Engler, Clinton, Engler, Gore, Granholm, and Kerry.

The waves of White and Black Flight are the biggest reason. Most of the legendary 84 Reaganites in Oakland no longer live there. Many of them now life in Northern Macomb, Lapeer County, or Livingston County. The ones that live in Oakland are mostly on the exurban Northern and Western part of the county in places like South Lyon, Milford, Highland, Oxford, and Lake Orion near the Livingston and Lapeer borders. That is the base of East Michigan's GOP.

Most of those on the fringes came from the West Side of Detroit, Redford(Wayne County), Farmington Hills, Livonia, and the non-Jewish areas of Southfield. A particular White Flight pattern is from Detroit-Redford-Farmington Hills-Novi-Brighton/Howell, and now Fowlerville. Brighton is now 1980's Novi. Novi is 1980's Farmington Hills.

Redford(in Wayne County) is still blue collar white mostly and has its social conservatism streak, but not as much as before. Catholic Central High school just moved to Novi/Wixom in West Oakland County to get more of the Catholics now in the Brighton/S.Lyon/Milford areas. Redford's much more democrat now.

Farmington Hills is generally the type of area that is talked about in the media when Oakland County is mentioned. It used to be Republican, but it is now about 53% democrat and has a strong culturally liberal streak today(Aldo Vagnozzi). Much of the right wing streak that was there moved to Brighton. There's more minorities there now, and more culturally white liberals there, which shifted the vote totals.

West Bloomfield Twp is another major factor. That used to be Republican until a lot of the Jews moved there up Northwestern Highway from nearby Southfield. WB went 59% for Granholm, 56% Gore, and 55% Kerry, although they will vote for some republicans downticket, even Conservative Catholic ones if they like them(Joe Knollenberg).

The biggest factor though is Southfield. It's now 60% black, and is the major base of the democrats there. The democrats rack up 28000 vote margins there(and Lathrup Village) as a starting point in Oakland. Add another 13000 in Pontiac, which is also a democrat stronghold. Then add in the staunchly democrat SE part of the city. Oak Park, Huntington Woods, Hazel Park, Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak Township. Another 17000 votes. There's a 58,000 vote margin the GOP has to make up right off the bat before factoring in the slightly democrat and swing areas in Oakland(Farmington Hills, Auburn Hills, West Bloomfield, Clawson, Berkley, Royal Oak City).

Lastly, if you run the Brooks Patterson so called "Fiscal Conservative(not really - they cave on taxes too) and social liberal", you lose outstate, Macomb, and decrease your base turnout. Pandering to Farmington Hills costs you most of North Michigan(remember Clinton won every county in the UP and NE Michigan - which Bush won). The economy is the number one issue, but don't sell out on social issues and 2nd amendment issues. Cultutally lib Republicans haven't won here statewide since the 1970's.

I suspect continuing diminishing returns in Oakland County over the next 15-20 years due to the increasing black population, where I expect it to turn into what Montgomery County PA or Delaware County PA is today. Our big challenges are to keep our strengths in the edge areas of Oakland, as well as our friendly middle burbs there like Rochester Hills and Troy. After that, we need to mine the votes in Livingston, Lapeer, and Northern Macomb Counties to help counteract our increasing losses in Oakland. Lastly, we need a strong effort to sway conservative union members and conservative minorities to leave the dems or to at least become independent voters. Posthumus nearly upset Granholm in 2002 thanks to non-teacher unions not accepting the white suburban culturally lib democrat. We need to continue our work there, and make a concerted efford downriver and in areas with a lot of union auto democrats - Genesee, Saginaw, and Bay Counties. They are currently alienated by everyone.

The question is this - are we going to go back home where we belong (94?), or are we going to turn into a ghost town and hit rock bottom.

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