Posted on 06/02/2005 7:52:09 AM PDT by kellynla
Is there going to be a filibuster on Cox?
Good for the SEC, good for Cox, and REALLY good for those of us hoping for a better, pro-secure borders Republican replacing Cox.
Now all we need is somewhere to stick Dreier and get him out of Congress.
John Campbell? God, I hope not. I hope not Dick Ackerman either, though he seems to be the frontrunner at this very early stage.
Below is part of an email from a friend whp publishes a daily email report for California politicos breaking this down very well.
***
STATE SENATE GOP LEADER ACKERMAN DECLARES FOR SEAT - INSTANT FRONT-RUNNER
"I am definitely running for Congress," Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman told me in the wee hours of this morning. In announcing his candidacy, Ackerman becomes the big front-runner to succeed Congressman Christopher Cox, who represents one of the most affluent, Republican House seats in America, located in central and southern Orange County.
Last night I got a call from a friend, Jean Pasco (a veteran political reporter with the Los Angeles Times) who tipped me off to an AP wire announcement that Chris Cox, in Congress since his election in 1988, 5th ranking House Member, Chairman of the House's Homeland Security Committee, was to be named today by President Bush to be Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission! Cox, who is been a very capable member of Congress, is an excellent choice by the President, and would likely be a shoo-in for U.S. Senate confirmation (if there are shoo-ins in that body anymore).
Cox's departure from Congress will set into motion much scurrying -- both in Washington, D.C., and here in California. In D.C., Cox will be leaving the Chairmanship of a major committee, as well as his high-ranking House Leadership post. We'll keep an eye on the races for those beltway plums. But more interesting will be the impending special election to choose a new Congressman from here in "The OC" -- these seats do not open often, since there are no term-limits for U.S. Representatives.
THE FIELD OF POTENTIAL CANDIDATES:
THE FRONT RUNNER:
State Senator DICK ACKERMAN has long aspired to Congress. He is well respected by his Republican colleagues (who elected him their leader in the State Senate) and is an extremely capable fundraiser. His current State Senate seat overlaps much of Cox's House seat. Look for Ackerman to secure a lot of endorsements right away, and try to lock this race up before it even begins. In a chat with County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh this morning, and he clearly feels that Ackerman would make a great Congressman -- he's quite excited about the prospect! Of course, as GOP Chairman he cannot formally endorse -- but if his enthusiasm is indicative, Ackerman's years of toiling and selfless support of others will come back in aces to him in this race. [Dick's great taste in California red wines is a big plus with the FlashReport]
THE OTHERS:
* State Senator JOHN CAMPBELL represents a good portion of the CD. Campbell has been very focused on instituting real fiscal and budgetary reform in Sacramento. He is rumored to be looking at a run for statewide office. He is a definite contender, should he weigh in, especially given his success as an automobile dealership owner, and ability to inject personal money. Don't forget he ran unopposed for the GOP Assembly nod years ago. But, he is a close friend of Ackerman...
* Assemblyman TODD SPITZER has made it clear that he is ready to leave Sacramento -- but his line has always been that he wants to come back home to Orange County. He has a considerable war-chest built up (in preparation for his ill-fated, aborted run for County District Attorney) and one can figure that a good percentage of those funds may be federally qualified dollars... He certainly has been all around OC this year (including Cox's district) and so he is certainly one to watch. Of course, if he really isn't 'too tired' of Sacramento, he is very well situated for a potential special election for Ackerman's State Senate seat...
* Assemblyman CHUCK DEVORE ran for Congress back in 1988, deciding to jump out of the race and support Cox, ultimately ending up on Cox's staff. Chuck's wife, Diane, continues to head up activities for Cox's political committee. There is no doubt that DeVore salivates for this seat, and an opportunity to be a U.S. Representative. But it is said that, 'luck is that place on the road where planning and opportunity meet.' Chuck was just elected to the state legislature, serving just six months of a two year term thus far. He is making great strides in retiring a debt to himself, and getting established after a bruising primary last year. Still, his name ID is high, and his desire great.
* Assemblywoman MIMI WALTERS is a charismatic candidate, who spent time in DC working for now-House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas. But, like DeVore, she is just starting out a state legislative career, and so may also be the victim of poor timing. Like John Campbell, though, she does have considerable personal means, making her a contender...
* Former Assemblyman and current OC Supervisor BILL CAMPBELL couldn't ask for a more perfect seat-- his 3rd Supervisorial District overlaps a huge portion of the House seat. Campbell's impressive clearing of the field when he ran for Supervisor shows he is widely respected. Bill, along with his life and business partner, Mary, have done well in the fast-food (Taco Bell) business (he isn't called "The Chalupa" for nothing!), so he isn't short on cash. Now, he is close with Ackerman, and also loves his job as a Supervisor (he is now Chairman) and has a lot of year ahead in that job... So those may be factors against a Bill Campbell run...
* Former Congressman and U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce JAMES ROGAN is a cult-hero. His role as a House prosecutor of President Bill Clinton was amazing, and the fact that he played this lead role when in a marginal House seat (which he subsequently lost in the very next general election) endeared him to all of us. Rogan recently left Washington, D.C., where he spent two years heading up the U.S. Patent Office -- but his move was into northernmost Orange County, into the district of Congressman Gary Miller. Rogan's GOP loyalty will be his biggest impediment to a run - as Ackerman has really put in his time. But, while Rogan may not be much of a self-funder, his nationwide direct-mail list must be huge. He is also very well-connected inside the Beltway. So, he is a definite potential candidate!
* Former State GOP Chairman and insurance executive MIKE SCHROEDER has long talked about wanting to run for Congress. His prominence in GOP circles, and his political acumen are legendary. Add to it his significant business successes these past last (he is loaded) and ability to self-fund, and it gets interesting. However, this long-time friend of Mike's knows him pretty well, and loyalty to friends is his long-suit. My prediction is with Ackerman in, Schroeder will be out...this go around.
* Other potential candidates who I would imagine would not run because of their friendship with Ackerman (amongst other reasons) would include retired State Senator JOHN LEWIS and Sheriff MIKE CARONA, and of course we already predict from his enthusiasm that former Assembly GOP Leader and OC GOP Chairman SCOTT BAUGH is out of the running.
* Some other names talked about include Dana Point Councilman JIM LACY, who ran for Congress years ago and was barely beaten by Jay Kim (who later resigned from Congress amid proven allegations that he, in fact, cheated to beat Lacy), popular talk show host HUGH HEWITT, and former County GOP Uber-Chairman TOM FUENTES.
* Wealthy people abound in this district that includes Newport Beach and other coastal OC cities -- so that means that there are potentially instantly-formidable candidates under every multi-million dollar roof! Healthcare businessman MARK JOHNSON floated his name years ago (he recently sold his business, and may be quite heavy in ca$h), and there may be some New Majority types out there that feel like their particular brand of liberal Republicanism would prevail if enough conservatives get into the race. Of course, there may be a right-wing wealthy-type person out there, too.
* A quick look to the Democrats... Because a special election is an 'open primary' situation, it is possible (though unlikely) for a Democrat to emerge as the top vote-getter in a multi-candidate broo-ha-ha. Perennial Cox-opponent JOHN GRAHAM may run again, and potentially look to Irvine Councilman LARRY AGRAN or former Irvine Councilman CHRIS MEARS to flirt with candidacies if enough GOPers are vying for the seat...
IN CLOSING:
Ackerman's the one to beat, for sure. But this seat is 'all that' for GOP candidates. Look for a lot of jockeying the next few days, let alone weeks and months. Of course, all eyes will be on the U.S. Senate, and whether Chris Cox's "good friend" Senator Boxer can figure out a way to defeat his nomination...
We will be keeping a very close on this special election, with more information to follow shortly on candidates (I'm sure that tomorrow's FR will include the quick "I'm not running" report from those listed above who quickly let me know of their plans), the time-line (much of which hinges on when Cox actually resigns from the House - once the Governor recognizes a vacancy in a house seat, he must set a special election to take place 112-119 days out), as well as more of a look at the 'trickle-down' effect of this race, such as a close look at a potential field of candidates for a State Senate special election should Dick Ackerman succeed Cox...
On a closing note, I remember clearly back to 1988 and walking precincts from Chris Cox, and for Dana Rohrabacher in the neighboring district. My first campaigns! I have been impressed with the careers of both men, and as Chris moves on to new challenges, and Dana keeps up the good-fight in the House, I think about how blessed Orange County is to have representatives who understand the importance of liberty, and freedom.
Jon Fleischman
Publisher, The FlashReport
***
Personally, among those named mentioned, I'd love to see Tom Fuentes or Mike Schroeder replace Cox.
Chris Cox goes through confirmation as the SEC Chief and then that would be easy in another two years to put him in a Judicial position.
Or, when Cheney retires in '07 (you heard it here first!) Cox becomes Veep and frontrunner in '08.
Thanks for the post. We're losing a good man...
BTW....what's Ackerman's stance on illegals???
Cheney ain't going anywhere.
Cox will almost definatly be in the next administrations cabinet or/if not a VP pick.
He is a rising star whose only shortcoming is the state he is in office in.
If he was in almost any other state, he would be a governor or senator by now and we would be talking about his as presidential timber.
By the way, in CQ, its noted that he reads math text books for fun, whats up with that?
Let real conservatives forget running Condi for any elected political office. She is NOT a social conservative and that is where all the battles must be won if we want to keep the USA under God we trust.
I do hope that your prediction is correct ! Cox/Allen or Allen/Cox would be such a strong ticket. My only email to Rush that he ever read on air was one enumerating the reasons why I thought Cox should be the Republican candidate for President in 2000. Maybe I was just 8 years premature. It is amazing to me that such a fine, intelligent, thoughtful man would have decided to dedicate his life to politics.
.
COX = Freeper
per = COX
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Bush is batting 0 for 2 with his appointees to head the SEC.
Let's hope Cox will do better, far better than Donaldson - but then anyone who shows up would be better than Donaldson.
What, if any, are Cox's qualifications for this position?
Why would Bush choose him when there are qualified candidates out there?
I wish.
But hopefully, from your lips to God ears.
I'm sorry but Cox has the bad luck of being in a bad state.
If he was anywhere else, he would be considered a presidential canidate as he would already be either a senator or governor.
Lets give him a few years to clean what needs to be cleaned up as the head of the SEC/
He might want to look at the abuses in stock buying and other investments by CalPers. If he exposed the fraud in Calpers, he might make a big name for himself out here in Kaliforniacator Land.
Maybe one of his supporters can send this suggestion to clean up CalPers to Mr Cox.
State Senator John Campbell would be the ideal candidate. We need more CPA's in Congress.
State Rep. Mimi Walters would also be a great choice.
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