Posted on 06/01/2005 6:31:37 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - California's population will reach up to 48 million by 2025, with most growth in inland areas lacking the infrastructure to support it, according to a report released Wednesday outlining challenges the state faces.
While the economy sheds manufacturing for service jobs that require a college education, Hispanics - the state's fastest growing demographic group and less likely to hold college diplomas - are at risk of being marginalized in the evolving work force. The report by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that despite those difficulties, the state can manage its growth over the next 20 years.
With a burgeoning population of nearly 37 million people, high cost of living and famously congested traffic, many analysts have dismissed the nation's most populous state as unsustainable and ungovernable. So PPIC researchers examined demographic and social trends to determine whether the gloomy forecasts were accurate.
"What we learned is that things aren't as bad as they've been portrayed," said senior PPIC analyst Mark Baldassare. "The state is definitely at a critical juncture, but not necessarily a crisis. All that being said, as we look at the next 20 years, not all is rosy."
The report identified several positive trends.
While California is likely to add the equivalent of the population of Ohio in the next two decades, the rate of growth will continue to slow. And the economic shift from manufacturing to service industries will prove less taxing on infrastructure and natural resources.
Still, the report noted that even with a slower growth rate, California's roadways and other infrastructure have not caught up with the population boom of the 1980s and 1990s. And the fastest growth is taking place in the Central Valley in the middle of the state and Inland Empire east of Los Angeles - areas not equipped to handle more traffic, educate more kids and house more people.
"We anticipate congestion could increase by 48 percent," Baldassare said. "That's a number which suggests it could affect quality of life if we don't make the right decisions about the transportation economy."
One of the biggest challenges is an undereducated work force, particularly among its large Hispanic population, Baldassare said.
While Hispanics will become the state's largest ethnic group by 2011 and constitute a majority by 2040, they are the less likely to receive a college education. The report forecast that with service jobs growing in areas such as health care, information technology and biotechnology, 39 percent of jobs will require a college degree by 2025.
"For our economy to grow, we need more college graduates," Baldassare said. "If Latinos don't achieve college graduation, we'll face the possibility of high employment and high health and human services expenditures. And the state won't have the revenue."
The report noted that heavy reliance on bonds to finance important needs, particularly road building and repair, could make long-term infrastructure investment impossible unless the cycle of borrowing is replaced by tax increases or fee increases.
Baldassare said the report had been written to stimulate discussion in state and local government, the public and private sectors, and a voting public he characterized as disengaged and distrustful.
He said Californians must be willing to consider all options for solving the state's revenue problems, including potential changes to Proposition 13, the 1978 landmark legislation that slashed commercial and property taxes.
"What kind of a state will this be if we don't consider all options?" Baldassare asked. "Increased commuting time. A population that doesn't have the education to take advantage of economic opportunity. There's a lot at stake for everyone."
That recommendation got a cool reception from Kris Vosburgh of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayer Association, which works to protect and promote Proposition 13.
"To those who say we have to solve these problems by looking at everything, Prop. 13 needs to be looked at about 1.5 seconds and then move on," Vosburgh said. "The state doesn't have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem."
---
On the Net:
View the report at: www.CA2025.org
Mark needs to get out of his office more.
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
No matter how academic they appear or how persuasive their argument, liberals, in this case the "nonpartisan" Public Policy Institute of California, always expose their real agenda when brought in close proximity to Kryptonite (Prop 13).
Does not compute. Let's suppose the population grows by 30%. Then the State needs to spend 30% more on infrastructure: roads, electricity grid, schools, water, sewage, ...
So it needs 30% more revenue, if we ignore any economies of scale.
But, with 30% more population, why isn't it getting 30% more revenue from those exact same fees and taxes? the whole kit and caboodle should simply scale up.
Unless, of course, those extra 30% are not productive, taxpaying citizens. But in today's America, that thought is forbidden.
At least ungovernable by the pathologically idiotic Democrats.
["What we learned is that things aren't as bad as they've been portrayed," said senior PPIC analyst Mark Baldassare.]
Who obviously doesn't get out much...
[...the economic shift from manufacturing to service industries will prove less taxing on infrastructure and natural resources.]
WTF??? Burger flippers need houses, roads, schools, hospitals, police (actually, more so), etc. too.
[Still, the report noted that even with a slower growth rate, California's roadways and other infrastructure have not caught up with the population boom of the 1980s and 1990s.]
Yes, especially since the last things the Dims spend tax revenue on are actually necessary assets like roads, bridges, etc.
["We anticipate congestion could increase by 48 percent," Baldassare said. "That's a number which suggests it could affect quality of life..."]
Ya think!?!?
[One of the biggest challenges is an undereducated work force, particularly among its large Hispanic population...]
Who shouldn't even be here...
[The report noted that heavy reliance on bonds to finance important needs, particularly road building and repair, could make longterm infrastructure investment impossible unless the cycle of borrowing is replaced by tax increases or fee increases.]
Or, unless spending is cut, especially on bureaucrats and union minions, and bonds are only used for capital asset replacement (and not for salaries and expenses). Of course, the Fabians expect tax increases will be approved, and they are probably right.
[Baldassare said the report had been written to stimulate discussion...He said Californians must be willing to consider all options for solving the state's revenue problems, including potential changes to Proposition 13, the 1978 landmark legislation that slashed commercial and property taxes.]
Translation, get the non-taxpaying class majority to vote to eliminate Prop 13 and authorize other tax increases and everyone will live happily ever after.
Findings from a report on California's future
http://www.bakersfield.com/state_wire/story/5566309p-5539340c.html
The Associated Press
Posted: Wednesday June 1st, 2005, 7:00 PM
Last Updated: Wednesday June 1st, 2005, 7:00 PM
Some findings from "California 2525," a new report by the Public Policy Institute of California examining the state's social, economic and demographic trends:
- By 2025, California will add 8 to 10 million new residents - roughly equivalent to the population of Ohio - bringing the state's population to up to 48 million. The foreign-born population will grow faster than the native-born population. By 2025, 30 percent of the state's population will be foreign born.
- The Hispanic and Asian population will continue to grow while the white population will remain stable or decline. Hispanics are projected to be the largest ethnic group by 2011 and will constitute a majority by 2040.
- Employment will shift toward service industries and away from manufacturing. The share of workers in service-related jobs (such as business, health care, law, and technology) will grow to 35.3 percent in 2025, up from 30.6 percent in 2000.
- The shift from manufacturing to a service economy will require more workers to be college educated. Projections suggest the share of workers with a college degree will need to rise from 30 percent to 39 percent by 2025.
- Traffic congestion in the Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Sacramento areas rank among the nation's worst, and new strategies need to be developed to reduce congestion and ease the high cost of road building and repair. These include more High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes, greater promotion of mass transit, and exploring new taxes or fees to build roads. From 1980 to 2000, the state increased its state highway stock by just 6 percent despite an 87 percent increase in highway miles driven.
I think we should tax Arnold's hydrogen filling stations. And while we're at it, we can tax the electric vehicle recharging stations I saw in southern Kalifornia. I never saw anyone using them, though. Must be happening at night.
And why does California have these problems? Because they waste their money on other things.
This is one of the most telling statistics. The state has been spending its money on liberal nonsense and ignoring its infrastructure. Businesses which do this are unhealthy and probably headed for bankruptcy.
Yeah, it's called taxation without representation by a crooked Leftist legislature, crooked Leftist judges, and City Councils statewide who ban the Boy Scouts, the Ten Commandments, yet cram their liberalism down the throats of kids and families. I'D SAY THAT'S A CRITICAL JUNCTURE.
""To those who say we have to solve these problems by looking at everything, Prop. 13 needs to be looked at about 1.5 seconds and then move on," Vosburgh said. "The state doesn't have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem."
Yeh...and leftist liberals, taxes, illegals and Hollyweird are ruining the Golden State. Throw in Babs Boxer into the mix for the added 'puke factor index'.
Prop. 13 is not the problem. Property tax was so high back in the 70’s that something had to give. It was a tax revolt to stop our government from taxing people right out of their homes. California would be a dust bowl, and I know some people may think that would be great because of all the stinkin’ lefties out here, but it’s still one of the best places to live. Long live Prop 13!
The current situation is unsustainable, thus projecting future conditions based on current trends is folly.
Are you psychic?
Yes I am. I am a liberal psychic.
Prop 13 has less than a decade to live. The liberals (for the children) and the militant hispanics (to bring down house prices and drive out the gringos) will work together to change/kill Prop 13.
The price of property will fall dramatically because no one can afford the new taxes and bank foreclosures. You have not seem a major mass exodus yet. Once Prop 13 is threatened at the ballot, home owners are going to sell their homes and get out.
That sounds funny. I think you mean a psychic to the way liberals think, instead of a liberal who's a psychic. Like dog psychics are psychics who can (pretend) to tell what dogs are thinking, instead of being actual dogs who are psychic. I get it.
I fear you are right in your predictions.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.