| May 31, 2005 Battle for the heart of Europe |
TONY BLAIR is preparing to battle with President Chirac of France over Europe’s political direction for the coming decades. The chaos in Brussels caused by France’s unexpectedly emphatic rejection of the European constitution has put Mr Blair, who takes up the EU presidency in July, in a powerful position to impose his vision of the future shape of the Union. He refused yesterday to declare the constitution dead or to say whether Britain would hold a referendum on the constitution, rejected by French voters by 55 per cent to 45. British officials said that they would prefer European leaders to reach that conclusion on their own. Dutch voters are expected to deliver a knockout blow to the treaty, originally created by France, in their referendum tomorrow. The Prime Minister called for a “time of reflection”, and said that French voters — many of whom want more social protection from Europe — had raised serious questions about the future of the EU. Taking a break from his Italian holiday, he said: “The question that is being debated by the people of Europe is how do you, in this era of globalisation, make our economies strong and competitive?” The political vacuum has prompted a battle for the “heart of the Union”, with Mr Blair keen to push more liberal economic policies, rather than French-style social protection with a large welfare state. Victory on settling the future direction of the EU would give Mr Blair the European legacy that he has long hoped for. The day after the unexpectedly large “non” vote, it became clear in Brussels that several fronts have been opened by the demise of the constitution.
These include future Euro-pean social and economic policy, the British rebate, the size of the European budget, and enlargement, including Turkey’s application for membership, which Mr Blair championed. Marco Incerti, of the Centre for European Policy Studies, which is funded by the Euro-pean Commission, said: “There will be a fight for the heart of Europe.”
President Chirac is expected to push hard to reassert his political authority. Sources close to the French President have given warning that he will be “more difficult, less co-operative and less European-minded than before”. One said: “The French Government will interpret ‘no’ as against being European-minded and reasonable on things like the budget.” Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, which is close to Mr Blair, said: “The British presidency will be a very difficult act to pull off well. France’s ability to be bloody-minded is great.” EU leaders will try to resolve the crisis at a Brussels summit next month, but if, as expected, they fail, it will fall to the Prime Minister to find a way out of the impasse. As president, Britain will chair almost all negotiations between EU ministers, with the right to propose and withdraw initiatives, putting it in a powerful position to resolve Europe’s worst crisis for 50 years. Mr Blair has made economic reform the top priority of his presidency, hoping to make labour markets more flexible in order to tackle record unemployment and sluggish growth across the continent. However, he is now likely to face challenges from President Chirac, who recently called economic ultra-liberalism the “new communism of our age”. Peter Mandelson, the British European commissioner, said: “There is a lack of appreciation amongst many — not all — in France that, in the 21st century, Europe has to raise its eco- nomic game.” A source close to Downing Street said: “We want to preserve the reform agenda. The question is whether the French will let us.” A senior European Commission official said: “We could have a lot of trouble with a lot of things, on the services directive, on trade issues, everything involving the liberal economic agenda.” Negotiations on Turkish membership are due to start in London on October 3, under Britain’s chairmanship. Mr Blair has championed this, insisting that it is essential to prevent a clash between the Islamic world and the West. But there is deep opposition in France and the Netherlands. Chris Davis, the leader of the Liberal Democrats in the European Parliament, said: “I don’t see how accession negotiations with Turkey can start under the current circumstances.” Q&A What happens to the constitution? “No” voters say that Europe must renegotiate a new text in keeping with French desires. Most experts dismiss this as dreamland and say that France will at best be asked to vote again. Some French insiders believe that sections can be salvaged after French and probable Dutch and British rejection and put into a new simplified treaty for streamlining EU decision-making.
What happens in the next few months? A wounded France turns tough in negotiations for a new EU spending plan to be negotiated under the British presidency. Expect a fierce French-led fight to kill the British budget rebate and maximise farm spending, which benefits France. It will also try to delay the start of negotiations on Turkish entry to EU, due in October.
Why did the French reject the treaty? Partly in order to punish President Chirac and vent anxiety over chronic unemployment and stagnating living standards. This produced an anti-capitalist backlash which has penetrated the middle classes. The “no” was also a protest against Brussels bureaucrats and the way that the EU has enlarged and put the stress on British-inspired doctrines of the free market, in conflict with France’s protectionist traditions.
Who wins from the French referendum debacle? Domestically, Eurosceptic parties of extreme left and right (Trotskyites and Jean-Marie Le Pen’s National Front), plus a big dissenting wing of the pro-EU opposition Socialist Party, led by Laurent Fabius, its deputy leader. In Europe, French ministers see Britain and its allies acquiring new clout in the vacuum left by the breakdown of the EU’s Franco-German “motor”. |