There was an article on the frontpage of the WSJ on Monday that stated that the greatest factor in the price of gasoline was the worldwide refinery shortage, not a shortage of crude. Refineries around the world are running at full capacity and just cannot keep up with demand. Sure the OPEC per barrell costs have had an effect, but the fact is that supply and demand are still the greatest determining factor at the pump.
Oil at $50 is $1.20 a gallon. Gasoline is $2 or so a gallon, some of which is tax. What is the cost to crack a gallon of oil into gasoline? There is 80 cents to play with.
The price hike was touched off by the repeated failure of the Saudis to make up for crude lost to war and natural disaster. This caused analysts to look closely at Saudi production. Many concluded that the Saudi cushion was no longer there, that their biggest field - Ghawar - was in decline, that they would be unable to bring enough new oil on line to compensate.
That combined with similar news from around the world has led us to where we are.