You could be right. But it sounds altogether too Panglossian for me. Your argument rests on the assumption that the 7 'moderates' actually want conservative justices on the Supreme Court--they just didn't want to vote for the nuclear option. Thus, the argument goes, the compromise frees them from their scruples about the nuclear option and they are now free to vote for the conservative justices they truly want.
I have a really hard time with that assumption. I think the problem is that the moderates DON'T WANT conservative justices any more than does Harry Reid. So the compromise is really a well conceived and executed plan to let them defeat conservative nominees and buy some political cover as 'centrist peace makers.'
A sufficiently ruthless game plan can probably break this coalition. But sitting around waiting for Karl Rove's master scheme to unfold will result in a supreme court that is no different than today's supreme court. There was no master scheme. The 48 real R's were had by a moderate putsch. All the momentum now is pushing everyone toward a continued activist court. Without a concerted effort by the administration, senate leadership and conservatives burning up the phone lines to the wobblers, that's just what we will get.
I usually counsel moderation in response to most political developments. But now is the time for white-hot anger aimed straight at the seven and at the Senate Leadership for blowing this. They need to feel the price we will make them pay if we have 20 more years of an activist court driving this country to the left. That is, if a conservative court is important to you.
I could clearly turn out to be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time a politician lied to me. I compare what I am seeing now to difficult customer situations I have been in where executives draw hard dark lines and then some more agreeable group goes in a back room and cooks up a solution that allows everyone to save face. The vote on Owen is a first step. For me, I will know I have been had if any of the seven Republicans fails to vote for cloture on any of the eight judges. That will clearly signal to me that they; 1) Through said nominee under the bus as part of the deal, 2) compromised on the "all nominees get an up or down vote" principal. That said, I fully expect some or all of the seven republicans to vote against confirmation on one or more of the nominees as part of the deal. What we need Frist to do now is line up the remaining 7 pending nominees and Bolton in the hallway and run them through. That will test whether the so called deal is worth the news it got..