[JohnnyZ]

Dan-O, what do you think about Jean Schmidt's poll? Obviously candidate-sponsored polls are iffy propositions, as well as difficult to use to guage a special election primary.

http://www.jeanschmidt.com/Poll%20Results.htm
Schmidt 20.8%
DeWine 17.9%
Brinkman 6.4%
McEwen 3.7%
Minamyer 2.1%
Undecided ~43%

Zogby +/- 5%, 400 likely, April 18-19

[Dan from Michigan]

The poll is WAY too early - April 15, even before filing day and any campaigning. Polls are also iffy in special elections or elections with a very large number of candidates. I suspect Schmidt's high numbers are due to being head of Right to Life or her state rep district being polled.

My state rep was polled 3rd or 4th, but he won the primary(by 2 votes). That was also in a race where all of the candidates ran as conservatives in a fairly clean campaign. It wasn't supposed to be close, but it was a low turnout GOP primary, since a lot of the voters went in the democrat primary(Michigan has open primaries) to vote in the governor's race. Then again, some polls are right on, as in the John Ramsey case.

In the Schwarz race, Gene DeRossett polled high for awhile, as did Brad Smith. Tim Walberg consistantly finished last in polling, but came in at 3rd because of momentum.

The biggest key in special elections is base motivation. That's how Garcia won his senate seat. Right to life wanted to destroy a pro-choicer, and while all are pro-2a, Garcia has lead the way before. Polls called this race too close to call, but it was a 2-1 win.

I think Brinkman's advantage is among gun owners and anti-tax advocates where he's lead. I think Schmidt's advantage is Right to Life where she's lead. McEwen is a candidate who is a former congressman. He lost to Ted Strickland for check bouncing.

It all depends on who shows up at the polls.