1. Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat nominee in 2008. The only possible way she isn't, is if she chooses not to run.
2. John McCain knows that he can easily beat Hillary in the general election. His BIG problem is getting the GOP nomination. More about that a little later.
3. Democrats will filabuster W.'s SC nominees. It is a given. It is what they do. They are programmed that way..their base will exert unbelievable pressure if they do not.
Now, a few words about McCain. Despite the scorn with which many here hold him, we can say two positive things about him:
1. He is staunchly pro-life. This has never been questioned.
2. He is a strong supporter of the War on Terror, and all that President Bush has done to wage it.
However, he's done a great many things that have really upset the GOP base since 2000, and despite all his efforts ( like campaigning for and with W in 2004, hugging him onstage, delivering a GREAT speech at the 2004 convention...including lampooning and harpooning Michael Moore) he remains wildly unpopular with the base. And he has Bill Frist, a potential 2008 rival, starting to act like a leader, giving the base what it wants in pushing the nuclear option in the Senate. So, what's a guy to do?
Remember, McCain spent years in a POW camp in Vietnam. He understands human nature, strategy, and the need to think many moves in advance in the political chess game. And note his most fervent acolyte, Lindsey Graham. Though many here don't like him now..remember his performance during the impeachment proceedings. He was superb. And he has a very astute political mind.
So, then, why concoct this insipid compromise. Surely McCain and Graham know that the issue will be back in the forefront as soon as a SC nomination comes up. Everyone knows that. And the Dems will filabuster. Indeed, McCain is counting on it.
Right now, he has accomplished the following:
1. Frist is neutered, possibly severely wounded
2. McCain is the absolute darling of the MSM. He will have a superb press, a heightened profile ( even without the movie) and gain a great deal of support among independents and middle-of -the road Democrats, who do not like the hard left direction of their party.
He can do no wrong.
So, some time this year, when the Dems ramp up their filabuster of the SC nominees, look for McCain to stand up and announce publicly that the trust he placed in the Dems promise was misstaken. That he was wrong, and that right now it is necessary that the GOP move immediately to invoke the nuclear option and give all the president's nominees an up-or-down vote.
I ask you, whom do evangelicals ( social conservatives) love more than the self-admitted sinner who has confessed, and has now seen the true light. Come home, our brother John, all is forgiven. We embrace you. And BTW, please accept our nomination to be President.
The MSM will be powerless to criticize McCain, or take the Dems side. And along with McCain, will come all 7 GOP senators who signed the compromise. And, as an early Christmas bonus for the base, Nebraska Senator Nelson will cross the aisle, join the GOP, and run in 2006 as a Republican ( why do you think Gov Johanns took the Agricultural Secretary post in the Bush administration? He "knew" that the Senate seat wouldn't be open)
And here's the real kicker...In this week's Newsweek story on McCain ( I know, it's Newsweek, but they do get it right once in a while) there's a blind item, quoting a senior aide to McCain that he has already spoken to Karl Rove about running McCain's campaign in 2008. Everyone says preposterous. Everyone assumes that Bush, Rove and the whole team couldn't stand McCain, let alone work for him...well, here it comes, folks....McCain need a running mate...and who better than.. JEB BUSH .....THAT'S RIGHT..YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST..
McCain/Bush 2008!!!
And have no doubt..there is an ironclad understanding that McCain will be a one-term president. Given his age, and health, that's reasonable. He might even step down in his 4th year, to let Jeb step in and run as an incumbent. Does anyone who knows anything about the Bush family think that they don't want the TRIFECTA? This guarantees it..
Remember that after the 2008 election, there is a census in 2010, and a redistricting of the House, and the red states will gain 7-10, or more Electoral votes, at the expense of the blue states, and the EV math for the Dems becomes well nigh impossible.
One more thing..our friend Lndsey Graham? The operating genius, along with Rove, behind all of this. What's in it for him. Well, he'll have his Senate seat for life. And with Frist retiring in 2006, look for Graham to run for Majority Leader....he's like Michael Corleone..making a strong move at a young age.. He wil have brought Nelson over to the GOP before the 2006 race, and after the 2006 results, when the Dems lose a few more Senate seats, look for Graham to bring over Pryor, and possibly one or two more.. He can offer them seniority and commitee assignments...and he can rule the Senate like it hasn't been done since Lyndon Johnson..and in 2020, after Jeb's 2nd term is over, if he wants to run for the WH, well, he's a relatively young man.
Well, there you have it. So, rejoice...and as for the Dems..well, after losing more seats in 2006 in both houses..look for Dean Reid, and Pelosi to be dumped, and a huge fight for the carcass of the Dem party. Hillary can have the nomination, but it won't be worth a plug nickle.
And that's why today there is a great dark cloud over the Clinton manse in Chappaqua..She knows that any dream of ever getting back inside the WH is now gone forever.
I won't vote for McCain. I don't trust him, I wish I did. But I don't.
McCain/Bush 2008!!!
I would not vote for McCain/Bush if they were the last two candidates on Earth. This is just nuts.
Very interesting analysis, Ken. First positive thing I've seen about "the deal."
interesting...
Excellent thoughts, for those of us holding out for hope over reality!
BTW...ever Karl Rove couldn't get McLaim elected with ANYbody on the ticket! There is too much hatred in place and now building for what McLaim stands for. Rove will not go from what he's done with Bush to what he cannot do with McLaim.
Oh, please. Give me a break. You forgive the sinner, but that does not mean you forget what they did. There's a huge difference. Besides, that's not going to happen, but even if it did, there is no way in Hell that I would ever vote for McCain. He's a traitor, and a back stabbing POS!!!! With God as my witness, I would vote for Hillary first.
I just hate when they use that word, almost as much as when they say orientated. Oy!
very funny ken. I don't believe McCain is strongly pro-life. I also think this is a grand conspiracy theory.
Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my ‘miscellaneous’ ping list.
While McCain may be able to win a naitonal election I do not believe that he can get out of the (R) primary process. Me, and a lot of others like me, will never vote for him as the nominee. He may think this is a grand plan to make a move, but I don't belive it will dividends with the base. There are a great many conservatives who simply don't trust him.
I honestly do not believe that Bill Clinton bait and switch politics will win on this side of the aisle.
My 2 cents.
For what it's worth I also don't belive Jeb would ever run with McCain, the Bush rift he (McCain) is developing is growing wider, and I don't think Jeb will cross that line.
You obviously weren't paying attention during the 2000 primaries.
If you care to check into it, see specifically the debate transcript exchanges between McCrazy and Alan Keyes.
Can you see the cloud from your house? BTW I like the idea of McCain getting righteous when they try to stop some SC nominee but I don't think he's very presidential...he looked really scruffy on the news yesterday and seemed discombobulated...and Jeb Bush--fuggedaboutit--Allen/Rice in 08!
He is staunchly pro-life. This has never been questioned.
He is not as pro-life as Bush. Stem-cell research, for one issue. The National Right-to-Life Committee had us handing out cards promoting Bush over McCain in the 2000 Republican primary. There were two or three other life issues on which he was to the left of Bush.
Cute regarding Hillary, but the problem with Democrats we have has been they were manipulating the culture through the Judiciary for decades and I see this as helping that cause.
McCain, Hillary, Shumer, Graham, etc. They are the same person. Professional politicians sucking on the taxpayer tit while stealing every cent they can get their hands on. Living high on the hog on our dime and the dollars of people that pay them to make the laws work the way they want. There is no represntative republic except that these people represent themselves.
As far as Jeb Bush? The guy the Bush family has always called "the smart one"? He's the kind of man who would see a child drowning in a lake but not dive in to help because some judge posted a "no swimming" sign. Jeb's recent cowardice was stunning. What a wimp!
I want a flat tax or a sales tax, I want the borders protected, I want Congress to be in session for 180 days every 2 years and the rest of the time I want them to go home, I want a Manhattan Project that will come up with a new energy source that replaces oil and then I want the Arabs to be left to kill each other until they are all dead, I want devoids that commit sex crimes put in jail and left there, I want devoids that touch children shot in the back of the head, I want NASA to shoot Paris Hilton to the moon and I want Alan Colmes to go with her.
I likely won't get what I want but that's fine, I can take care of myself.
Mac & Hitlary have one thing in common;
neither will garner more than 35% of the vote.
I have the utmost respect for McCain's service in Vietnam, but his disdain for the First Amendment outweighs any positives he might have. I would vote 3rd party even if it meant risking Hillary.