I think so.
I think that McCain's proposal means that a handful of Democrats will vote FOR cloture, so that there is a vote. They will then vote AGAINST the nominees in the vote, but the nominees will still pass because they will still have 51 votes.
What this will do is avoid Senator Frist calling for a ruling from the chair that invalidates filibusters of judicial candidates.
But it will mean that the Democrats can filibuster again every time.
I don't know if the Republicans leadership has the spine to end the filibuster of judges once and for all by calling for the rules change anyway and forcing the confrontation.
It is not hard to see how this will all shape up.
The Supreme Court granted a writ of certiorari on an abortion case, which will be heard in October, and the court is likely to have a retirement this year.
The Democrats will have preserved the power to filibuster the next Supreme Court nominee, Rehnquist's replacement, and will be able to use a direct abortion issue as the plea to the public to sustain the filibuster.
All that said, will the Republicans have the guts to go nuclear this time even if they don't have to?
Nothing they have done since the election, or in the current nuclear option debate, gives any indication that they will. The pro-life right wants the nuclear option. They want the clear VICTORY on the issue. If the Democrats go along with cloture, it will deprive the pro-lifers of their victory.
All that said, will the Republicans have the guts to go nuclear this time even if they don't have to?
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Don't think so. Too many have already said all they want is an up or down vote. If DEMs give each nominee an up or down vote, even if kicking and screaming (and slowly), I don't see the the Republicans 'going nuclear.'