Schmidt doesn't take votes from Brinkman. She's chummy with the establishment and has the tax-hiking record to match. With that profile she'd take away from DeWine, and with her strength in Clermont County she could even hurt McEwen since he needs to run up margins in the rural counties.
McEwen is the one who could be a problem. He holds some appeal to the conservative Christian crowd and even has some of their support. Fortunately though, most of that support comes from outside the state, and they don't get to vote here. So far it seems that most of the local conservatives are smart enough to stick with Brinkman.
"So far it seems that most of the local conservatives are smart enough to stick with Brinkman."
That's good there. How organized are the campaigns. When it's a special election, usually the most organized campaign wins with the low turnout.